Predictions: 2015 U.S. Open

June 15, 2015

It’s that time again. It’s hell week. It’s our national championship, the ultimate test of golf, this year at a new site – Chambers Bay.  More so than most years, the story prior to the championship has been the course, and the lack of a clear favorite. To help definitively resolve this issue, JK and I provide you with our picks:

Top 10
1 Jordan Spieth -5
T2 Louis Oosthuizen -4
T2 Dustin Johnson -4
T4 Adam Scott -3
T4 Cameron Smith -3
T4 Branden Grace -3
7 Charl Schwartzel -2
8 Brandt Snedeker -1
T9 Rory McIlroy E
T9 Shane Lowry E
T9 Jason Day E
T12 Kevin Kisner 1
T12 Matt Kuchar 1

JK:
Winner: Kevin Kisner (Jordan Spieth; Kisner T-12)
Winning Score: -1 (-5)
Runner Up: Justin Rose (Louis Oosthuizen and Dustin Johnson)  
Low Amateur: Beau Hossler (Brian Campbell at T27, +5. Hossler made the cut, finishing T58 at +12)
“Unknown” in the Top 10: Billy Hurley III (MC with an 80 on the first day. Cameron Smith T4 at -3)
Last Year’s Winner (Martin Kaymer) Will … (Win, Top10, Make the Cut, or Miss the Cut): Top 10 (MC)
How many prior US Open winners will be in the Top 10: 2 (1 – Rory McIlroy)
Masters Champion (Speith) will …: Make the Cut (ha….)
British Open Champion/PGA Champion (Rory) will …: Top 10 (correct)
Sergio Garcia will…: Make the cut (correct, T18)
Dustin Johnson will…: Top 10 (correct, T2)
Rickie Fowler will…: Make the cut (not exactly)
Tiger Woods will…: Make the cut (uhh)
Jimmy Walker (current 2nd Fedex points) will…: Miss the cut (made it, T58)
Adam Scott will…: miss the cut (T4 with a scintillating 64 on Sunday)
What will be the major storyline of the tournament: the course (pretty much. course was awful. Although it could easily be Spieth’s second, or DJ’s blunder).
Bold Prediction?: i just told you Kevin Kisner was going to with the US Open. That’s not bold enough? (not a bad guess)

LG:
Winner: Dustin Johnson (so close)
Winning Score: -4 (but yet)
Runner Up: Rickie Fowler (so far away)
Low Amateur: Bryson DeChambeau (MC)
“Unknown” in the Top 10: Kevin Na (first off, T48 at +8. But second off…no, Kevin Na is not “unknown.” He’s a TOUR winner, LG)
Last Year’s Winner (Martin Kaymer) Will … (Win, Top10, Make the Cut, or Miss the Cut): Miss the Cut (correct)
How many prior US Open winners will be in the Top 10: 0 (1 – Rors)
Masters Champion (Speith) will …: Make the cut, but fade on the weekend (Fade into the fairway on 18, securing the trophy)
British Open Champion/PGA Champion (Rory) will …: Top 10 (correct)
Sergio Garcia will…: Top 10 (close)
Dustin Johnson will…: Win! (close)
Rickie Fowler will…: Second! (not close)
Tiger Woods will…: Play at least 2 rounds. (“least”)
Jimmy Walker (current 2nd Fedex points) will…: Make the cut (yup)
Adam Scott will…: Make the cut (Top10)
What will be the major storyline of the tournament: DJ holds on to win at a ridiculous course.  He is paired with Rory in the final group, but Rory becomes a non-factor.  Fowler, playing one group ahead, makes a run, but ultimately, DJ wins with a solid par on 18. (would have been cool. maybe next time)
Bold Prediction?: See storyline.  Also, Fowler wears orange on Sunday. (hard to confirm what fowler was wearing, since he was absent)

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2 Responses to “Predictions: 2015 U.S. Open”

  1. JK Says:

    Noting today that PGATOUR.COM has come out with an article analyzing what they believe are “important statistics” for picking the US Open winner. Interestingly, Kevin Kisner is ranked #4 on one of the lists: http://www.pgatour.com/statsreport/2015/06/16/us-open-predictions-stats-formulas.html

    Your thoughts, LG?

    • LG Says:

      Fascinating… How good are these predictions historically? I don’t think they’re taking into account the very tight chipping conditions. I think they need to put a higher premium on prior winners of the Open Championship for this tournament. Also, on just bombing the ball. 7700 yard layout? Oh brother…


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