Predictions: 2016 U.S. Open
June 14, 2016
The U.S. Open returns to historic Oakmont Country Club this week for the 9th time. This week will be about the course as much as it is the high scores the field will post. As opposed to last year’s contest at Chambers Bay, this week is a return to true U.S. Open style golf with billiard table quick greens and fairways you have to walk down single file. Will Oakmont play tough? Take a look at Justin Thomas’s recent video post on Instagram:
If that’s not enough punishment, here are the greens just in case you happen to hit them:
Let the punishment begin!
Top 10
1 Dustin Johnson -4
T2 Jim Furyk -1
T2 Scott Piercy -1
T2 Shane Lowry -1
T5 Sergio Garcia E
T5 Branden Grace E
7 Kevin Na +1
T8 Jason Dufner +2
T8 Zach Johnson +2
T8 Jason Day +2
T8 Daniel Summerhays +2
12 David Lingmerth +3
LG:
Winner: Jason Day Dustin Johnson; Jason Day finished T8 at +2
Winning Score: +5 -4
Runner Up: Dustin Johnson winner
“Unknown” in the Top 10: Colt Knost I don’t think he was even in the field, LG.
Last Year’s Winner (Speith) will…: Top 10 T37 at +9
How many prior US Open winners will be in the Top 10: 3 1, Jim Furyk
Masters Champion (Willett) will …: Miss Cut T37 at +9
British Open Champion (Z. Johnson) will …: Miss Cut Top 10, T8 at +2
PGA Champion (Day) will…: Win T8 at +2
Last week’s winner, Daniel Berger, will…: Make Cut T37 at +9
Rory will…: Top 10 Strong Twitter game, poor golf game. MC
Phil the thrill will…: Make Cut Phil the go-home-early thrill
Sergio Garcia will…: Make Cut Top 10, T5 at E
Dustin Johnson will…: Top 10 That’s one way to put “win”
Rickie Fowler will…: Miss Cut Correct
Adam Scott will…: Top 10 Close, T18 at +6
Will anyone break par for all 4 rounds?: No. Correct, DJ was closest with a +1 71 in R3. Kevin Na had 3 rounds in the 60s, but started with 75 on Thursday
What will be the highest score that misses the cut?: +30 89/77, which is a cool +26
Odds that JK and LG ever get to play Oakmont?: 2.5:1 yikes
What will be the major storyline of the tournament: The course dominating the field Probably DJ’s penalty….but, shockingly, Oakmont kind of laid down after the rain.
Bold Prediction?: Jason Day has a 4 putt. WHO FOUR PUTTS?? Not Jason Day
JK:
Winner: Dustin Johnson Correct. JK picks another one
Winning Score: +2 can’t win em all
Runner Up: Bubba Watson T51 at +12
“Unknown” in the Top 10: Daniel Berger T37 at +9
Last Year’s Winner (Speith) will…: T-2 not exactly
How many prior US Open winners will be in the Top 10: 2 Just Furyk.
Masters Champion (Willett) will …: Top 10 nope
British Open Champion (Z. Johnson) will …: MC Top 10
PGA Champion (Day) will…: Top 10 correct
Last week’s winner, Daniel Berger, will…: Top 10 incorrect
Rory will…: Make Cut, probably shoot 62 on the last day, and maybe crack the Top 10 after two 75s.MC
Phil the thrill will…: MC correct
Sergio Garcia will…: Make Cut Top 10
Dustin Johnson will…: Win correct
Rickie Fowler will…: Make Cut incorrect
Adam Scott will…: Can’t Putt / Miss Cut (it’s a haiku) at least i got rhythm
Will anyone break par for all 4 rounds?: not a chance in hell correct
What will be the highest score that misses the cut?: +18 one dude shot +19 for 18 holes!
Odds that JK and LG ever get to play Oakmont?: 1/1 – this WILL happen. more confidence
What will be the major storyline of the tournament: Johnny Miller talking about Johnny Miller wrong network…
Bold Prediction?: Spieth 4-putts….like he did in the British Open AND The Masters…. amazingly, correct
Understanding Drivers, part 1 – Spin
April 19, 2016
Picture yourself on the steps of the local Golfsmith. There’s a sale running—drivers are 20% off, and last year’s model is severely discounted. You go in, grab a few, and head over to the simulator. After hitting a few balls you decide which one you like best go ring it up. You stick it in your bag for a few rounds until you realize you can’t find the fairway for love or money. Then you go back and start the cycle over.
The story rings true for a vast majority of golfers in America. Unfortunately, it’s a tragedy that continually fails to address specific questions about golf clubs—questions that should be asked in order to make sure you get the right equipment for yourself. Do you know your club head speed? How about your spin rate? What’s your angle of attack? Do you know what type of shaft kick point you need? What loft gives you the best spin control? What is the ideal spin rate anyway? All of these questions are things that the common golfer knows very little about. Most golfers make their decisions on which driver to buy based on which one goes furthest on the simulator. But those same golfers fail to understand that the properly fit driver will provide the greatest benefit in terms of accuracy and distance, not just both distance measured on a simulator.
Over the next several weeks, I will provide a series of posts dedicated to helping you understand how to make the most out of your driver technology. It’s not enough just to have someone who is a supposed “expert” tell you what you should be getting. You need to understand how the product your buying helps your game. Only after you’re confident that your clubs address your individual swing characteristics can you play your best golf.
This post, the first in the series, will introduce something that most golfers ignore completely, at least with respect to drivers: spin. Now, most golfers see the TOUR pros backup their wedges and go “I wish I could do that.” However, spin on your driver is far more important than on your wedges. It can determine how far your ball flies, how far it rolls, how well you hit the shot, and a host of other important factors that change your ability to hit your driver confidently. Although there is no one rule for what is appropriate spin, understanding the differences in spin rates can help you achieve your best results.
Generally, driver heads with the flattest face loft will have the lowest amount of spin. Thinking back to the old days when I grew up playing golf, golf club heads were far more prone to high spin then they are today. This was especially true with shaft technology (not being particularly great), and with the old golf balls (being with a softer materials like balata and with wound construction). As such, for high swing players, it was important to have a low lofted driver to ensure that the ball did not spin too much. But with low loft drivers, it was very hard to hit the ball in the air. Therefore, you had to have very long golf tees, very high swing speeds, or a combination of the two in order to play the ball effectively. Nowadays, we have new means to control spin. Shaft technology is much better than it once was; golf balls are made differently than they used to be; and golf club heads even have characteristics that allow players to choose spin rates based on the location of weight in the head. We will get to all of this in later posts, but it’s an important backdrop for what is about to be discussed.
When selecting your driver, the ideal spin rate for you will likely be somewhere between 1500 and 3000 RPMs. For most golfers, the ideal spin rate is usually around 2000 RPMs. However, your ideal spin rate will depend on how you play the ball specifically. Some golfers are more prone to lower ball flights or higher ball flights. For golfers who naturally hit the shots higher, the lower spin rate they can achieve, the better. Driver Loft angles nowadays are usually between 8.5° and 12° loft. However, even with a very high lofted driver, you might hit your shots particularly low, as I do. And even with a very low lofted driver, you might hit your shopts particularly high, as LG does. This is a characteristic you will know only by examining your launch angle on a launch monitor. It’s a characteristic of your own swing, not something that is built into a driver necessarily. Understanding this, however will allow you to select equipment that maximizes your playability. For example, I hit the ball very low; it is important that I have a driver that spins the ball a little higher than most drivers. The reason for this is that my low launch shot will want to fall to the earth by gravity. Spin acts like an airplane wing and pushes the ball back up into the air against gravity. Because my launch angle is very low, I need a little bit more spin in order to have the ball carry far enough that my shot is acceptably long. For a player like LG, his high launch angle would be impaired buy high spin. If he already had a high launch angle, spin would serve only to increase the height of his shot. In this case, the ball would balloon up into the air instead of continuing along its normal path. As such, it is important for a player like LG to have a low spin profile in order to have the bolt carry its maximum distance.
The figure above illustrates these various flights. As can be seen, the red and green ball flights have the same launch angle, but the red has a bit more spin to keep the ball in the air longer. It flies further than the green ball flight, and the overall yardage with roll is greater for the red than the green. Similarly, for LG’s type of ball flight, the dark blue and pink flights launch at the same angle, but the high spin rate sends LG’s blue ball flight high up in the air with a steep landing, where the pink ball plight carries long. In reality, the pink ball flight would have more roll than the blue ball flight as well. In each case, matching the spin with the launch helps find the ideal shot, or as close to it as we can find.
How do we know what is ideal? That is a very tough question. “Ideal” depends on a lot of factors. You might use a high lofted driver with a low lunch shaft in order to achieve the right combination of launch and spin. Or, you might be a very low launch player who needs higher loft and a shaft that produces higher launch as well. The only way to tell for certain is to have someone who is experienced go through different options available and see what works best. This is not simply an exercise of taking the drivers that are sitting on the rack and walking into a simulator. This exercise requires someone taking the same exact heads with different shafts, or the same exact shaft with different heads, in combination to see what is the best results. As previously stated, the higher your launch angle, the lower your spin rate should be. And in general if you hit the ball lower, you might need more spin in order to keep the ball in the air. But only an experienced club fitter will be able to tell you where the exact sweet spot is for your game. For example, LG and I use the same driver had in the same loft with the same weight settings, but he uses a very low launch and low spin shaft, and I use a more middle launch mid spin shaft. This allows us both to hit acceptable golf shots that are controllable and appropriately long for a driver.
So how does all of this stuff matter? And how do we get different characteristics from things that look so similar? Well, that’s the subject of another discussion. For now, understand that an ideal spin rate is more important than just getting the flex of your shaft right or the loft of your driver right. You may have always played a 10° driver in the past, but you might actually need a 12° driver based on how you hit your shots. This is not a statement of your manhood; it’s just a characterization of your swing. PGA TOUR winner Camilo Villegas uses a 12° driver. If one of the best players in the world uses this equipment, there is no shame in you doing so.
And I know, it sounds easy. But it’s not. Because spin isn’t the only thing we worry about when we’re picking a driver. But we’ll talk about that later…
Predictions: 2016 The Masters
April 6, 2016
Hello, Friends.
It is a a tournament that requires no introduction, so we won’t waste your time with one.
However, I will waste your time with a personal narrative, because, let’s face it, you’re reading our blog for just this sort of thing.
Last year was my first ever trip to the Masters. To say that Augusta is awe-inspiring is an understatement. There is nothing like it in the world of golf. It literally felt like going to DisneyWorld when I stepped on the grounds. There is an enormous entrance that is only used for one week a year at Augusta. There are permanent structures devoted to concessions and merchandise that are used only one week a year. In fact, there is an entire PRACTICE FACILITY that is only used for one week a year!
And then there was the course. I have yet to find any pictures, videos, or even course fly-overs that do it justice. The undulation of the greens, particularly the ones on the front nine that are not often televised (holes 4-6), and the elevation change throughout the course generally must be experienced in person to understand why golf nerds love this place. These greens could not be built today by any rational golf course designer. For example, the back right pin location on the par three 6th hole must be one of the most intimidating shots in golf. My friends and I speculated about the names and origins of the herd of elephant that had been buried under this particular green. The drop offs around this location look as though they would kick the ball back to the front of the green by any shot that came up even an inch short, and the landing area is about the size of a throw rug. Naturally, long is dead. Imagine hitting to that location from 180 yards on Sunday with a 1 shot lead. Talk about pressure.
Finally, let’s not forget Amen Corner. There is, of course, it’s remarkable beauty, historical significance in the tournament’s outcome, and the brilliant design of the holes. While much ink has been spilled about these 3 holes, I’ll do my best to add something of value. What stood out to me was something I would not have believed had I not seen it with my own eyes. A friend and I were sitting in the stands watching groups play through during the practice round. To our left, we watch players attempt a dangerous approach to #11 – a lightening fast green with water short and left with the only bail out to the right. In front of us, we are treated to views of one of the most storied par 3s in golf history, #12. To our right, players tee off on the short par five 13th that bends left more than I could have imagined even after watching this tournament for 10 years. At some point during our reverie, my friend asks me if I see anything strange about the flags on #11 and #12. Indeed: They were no more than 100 yards apart, and yet, the wind was somehow causing them to point directly at one another.
Are you excited yet?
With a field of young guns, and no odds-on favorite, here are our humble predictions:
Place Player Score
1 Danny Willett -5
T2 Jordan Spieth -2
Lee Westwood
T4 Paul Casey -1
J. B. Holmes
Dustin Johnson
T7 Matthew Fitzpatrick E
Søren Kjeldsen
Hideki Matsuyama
T10 Daniel Berger +1
Jason Day
Rory McIlroy
Justin Rose
Brandt Snedeker
LG:
Winner: Rory McIlroy Danny Willett
Winning Score: -14 -5
Runner Up: Jason Day T10
“Unknown” in the Top 10: No unknowns – You’re going to have an insane finish this year. Danny Willett
Last Year’s Winner/US Open Champion (Jordan Speith) Will … (Win, Top 10, Make the Cut, or Miss the Cut): Top 10 correct
How many prior winners will be in the Top 10: 3 1
Dustin Johnson will… Top 10 correct
Bubba Watson will … Top 10 T37 at +9
Louis Oosthuizen … Top 10 T15 at +3, and one INSANE hole in one: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=98xPlrGfkco
Adam Scott will … Top 10 T42 at +11
Martin Kaymer will … Make Cut correct, T49 at +12
Ernie Els will … Make Cut MC, and still putting on #1: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X_kVhkUbtQE
Jason Dufner will … be found #dufnering by the big tree on Saturday (miss cut) correct..76-77
Sergio Garcia will … Make Cut correct, T-34 at +8
Bryson DeChambeau will … Miss Cut uhg…T21 at +5, and low amateur
British Open Champion (Zach Johnson) will … Top 10 wrong Johnson..MC, 72-80
PGA Champion (Jason Day) will … WIN T10 at +1
Will there be a hole in one? Yes! there were 3 on sunday alone
What will be the major storyline of the tournament? Insanely packed leaderboard with a shootout on Sunday – Rory, Jason, Rickie, Jordan, Louis, Bubba, Dustin, Phil, Scott, Henrik, and ZJ. sadly, Jordan Spieth choking on his wedge
What is your Bold prediction? There will be a double eagle! nope
JK:
Winner: Phil Mickelson MC
Winning Score: -5. After Jordan’s performance last year, I expect the tournament committee to put some teeth back in the course. correct on both fronts
Runner Up: Jordan Spieth correct, sadly
“Unknown” in the Top 10: Stephen Bowdwich MC, 79-82
Last Year’s Winner/US Open Champion (Jordan Speith) Will … (Win, Top10, Make the Cut, or Miss the Cut): top 10 yup
How many prior winners will be in the Top 10: 3 just Spieth
Dustin Johnson will… make the cut Top 10
Bubba Watson will … top 10 last man to make the cut, barely. not even close to the top 10
Louis Oosthuizen … top 10 close…T15 at +3
Adam Scott will … top 10 erm
Martin Kaymer will … miss the cut barely made it
Ernie Els will … take 45 putts to finish the second round. miss the cut he took 45 putts on the first hole
Jason Dufner will … who? Miss cut yup
Sergio Garcia will … make the cut yup
Bryson DeChambeau will … have the ugliest set of golf clubs on the planet. While he misses the cut. close
British Open Champion (Zach Johnson) will … top 10 yikes
PGA Champion (Jason Day) will … top 10 yup
Will there be a hole in one? Yes, but probably by an unknown and probably on the front nine kind of
What will be the major storyline of the tournament? Phil gets his fourth jacket, tying Arnold Palmer and Tiger Woods. This will be his last major victory not exactly
What is your Bold prediction? Rory McIlroy barely makes the cut, and finishes just outside the top 10 despite a last day chargenot exactly
Looking Back, Explanations, and What’s Important
March 9, 2016
I want to start this post off by apologizing…first, for the wall of text, but also for the unreasonable delay in posting the wall of text. Hopefully the ramblings that follow this apology make sense, hit home, and lead into something.
A little over five years ago, LG and I were sitting around watching golf, predicting what the commentators would say (rather accurately, if I might so brag)–lo and behold, the PF was born. We came up with interesting ideas for content, subject areas to dedicate to our readers, unbiased reviews, etc. etc. We were ready to take on the world. Then some funny things happened. Like…life.
In the time since the blog started, LG went from being a happy student to an overworked overachiever twice, to a business owner in a field having nothing to do with his training. I became a father a few times over, moved across the country, and became addicted to finance the way I was once addicted to golf. What’s more–and without giving up too much–my job got in the way of my contributions to this blog. It simply wasn’t possible to do both tasks at the same time. So…we let it slip.
In the mean time, a few more things happened. LG grew into a new experience and relationship with the game that is, in some ways, far different from what we started doing, and, in other ways, a much deeper version of the same thing. In contrast, after 20 years of being an avid player, enthusiast, and equipment junkie, I grew jaded and cynical about the game. Things that were once fun and interesting to me grew to be a drag. It was as if I had seen behind the smoke and mirrors, to realize that what we know as golf was no more a magical experience than the Wizard of Oz. I still played, but the shine with which I once enjoyed the game grew apart from me.
This past weekend–prompted by a friend of the community–I traveled back to the east coast and played TPC Sawgrass. It was a long, painful flight. Although I had always dreamed of the moment I would step out onto that special layout, the course itself proved to be somewhat lackluster, and the greens were simply nothing special. I tweaked my back. I shot 14 shots above my handicap. And in that round and the few that followed, I lost over a dozen golf balls.
But I gained something in that trip. Meeting with two tremendous friends (one being LG), the spark lit for me yet again. The fire started. And it began to help me realize why we do this. Sure, playing for that record score is an exciting thing. Getting into competition is enjoyable. But that’s not why we do this. We do this to have something with which we can find common ground with our friends, relatives, and anyone else who feels the same way about the game that we do (or, in my case, did). We do this to have stories to pass on. We do this to get perspective on life through a game that exemplifies all of the faults of life. We do this to find those few truly special moments when we can say we did something different from the rest.
It matters little to me anymore that the veil of honor has been lifted from the world of golf, for me. I can enjoy this game for what I want it to be to me, despite the crooked politics, the dishonesty, and the douchery that pervades it. This game is personal. It’s mine alone to enjoy. Those things will not affect me unless I let them. Regardless of anything around me, I am going to continue to play and to love this game.
I’m hopeful that LG and I will have more time and energy to commit to sharing our lives in this game with all of you. Kids, jobs, life, and other commitments make it difficult. However, even if not, know that we’re still out there doing what we love. Because this game is it.
2015 PGA Championship Predictions
August 12, 2015
Glory’s last shot…yada yada yada. Definitively the least exciting or compelling major. Honestly, JK and I nearly forgot to do predictions.
Also, Whistling Straits looks awesome.
Now, for your moment of Zen:
update as of 3/8/2016 – yes, this is how long it took me to finally update this post. you’d think with such an accurate prediction, I’d be able to get to it faster than that. oh well. answers provided in italics. here’s the top 10:
1 -20 Jason Day
2 -17 Jordan Spieth
3 -15 Branden Grace
4 -14 Justin Rose
T5 -13 Brooks Koepka
T5 -13 Anirban Lahiri
T7 -12 George Coetzee
T7 -12 Matt Kuchar
T7 -12 Dustin Johnson
T10 -11 Robert Streb
T10 -11 Tony Finau-JK
LG:
Winner: Dustin Johnson (T7, -12)
Winning Score: -12 ( -20, but you got DJ’s score right)
Runner Up: Rickie Fowler (T30, -4)
Low PGA Professional: No one cares. (correct)
“Unknown” in the Top 10: Thongchai Jaidee (cut)
Last Year’s Winner (Rory) Will … (Win, Top10, Make the Cut, or Miss the Cut): make cut (solo 17 at -9, correct)
The Master’s/US Open Winner (Speith) Will: Top 10 (correct. solo second)
The Open Champion (ZJ) Will: make cut (cut)
Will someone win it, or will everyone else lose it? DJ finally closes the deal. No stupid penalties this time.( yeah whatever)
What will be the biggest story of the tournament? See above. (biggest story–jason day crushes it)
Tiger Woods will: Make cut, possible top 10.(73-75. MC. RIP Tiger’s game)
Louis Oosthuizen will: Top 10 <T30, -4
Dustin Johnson will: WIN (top 10)
Rickie Fowler will: Top 10 (not exactly)
Jason Day will: Make cut (sure)
Martin Kaymer (last PGA winner at Whistling Straits) will: Make cut, possible top 10 (good guess, T12 at -10)
Who is most likely to blow it it on the 17th hole on Sunday? No one – DJ take the reigns and gets the job done. (no blowing it. just JDay blowing it away)
JK:
Winner: Jason Day (correct)
Winning Score: -11 (-20)
Runner Up: Jordan Spieth(correct)
Low PGA Professional: Johan Kok (77-77, MC. Brian Gaffney was the only club pro to make the cut, finishing at +5 and solo 71st)
“Unknown” in the Top 10: Robert Streb (correct)
Last Year’s Winner (Rory) Will … (Win, Top10, Make the Cut, or Miss the Cut): MC (incorrect)
The Master’s/US Open Winner (Speith) Will: Top 10 (correct)
The Open Champion (ZJ) Will: MC (correct)
Will someone win it, or will everyone else lose it? Win it. The PGA, while least compelling of all the majors, is usually won and not lost. (correct. JDay ran away with it)
What will be the biggest story of the tournament? Spieth in it again (correct for the first day or two, then…it was obvious he had no chance as Day kept striping 360-yard bombs down the middle.)
Tiger Woods will: MC(correct)
Louis Oosthuizen will: Top 10 (incorrect)
Dustin Johnson will: Top 10 (correct)
Rickie Fowler will: Top 10( incorrect)
Jason Day will: Win (correct)
Martin Kaymer (last PGA winner at Whistling Straits) will: MC (incorrect)
Who is most likely to blow it it on the 17th hole on Sunday? Bubba. (while this is true that he is the biggest tool on Tour, there was no losing this one.)
Predictions: 2015 British Open
July 13, 2015
Time for the third major of The Year Of The Links Major. This one, the purest form of links golf, the Open Championship at St. Andrews. In the last three contests at St. Andrews, the winner has waltzed to victory, with no margin of victory at St. Andrews being less than 5 shots since 1995. Many story lines pervade our senses–will Jordan Spieth take home the third major in a row? Will Tiger Woods find his game at a place that he has previously been a magician? Can Louis Oosthuizen relive his major championship form when it matters in his St. Andrews defense? Can Dustin Johnson bounce back from a terrible loss at the US Open?
Without further ado, here are our predictions:
Final Leaderboard:
1 Zach Johnson -15*
T2 Louis Oosthuizen -15*
T2 Marc Leishman -15*
T4 Jason Day -14
T4 Jordan Spieth -14
T6 Justin Rose -11
T6 Sergio Garcia -11
T6 Danny Willett -11
T6 Jordan Niebrugge (a) -11
T10 Adam Scott -10
*denotes playoff
LG:
WIN: Rickie Fowler (T30, -6)
PLACE: Victor Dubuisson (MC, 74-71)
SHOW: Tiger Woods (MC, 76-75)
Winning Score: -10 (-15)
“Unknown” in the Top 10: Eddie Pepperell (T49, -4. Actual answers: Willett, Niebrugge)
Last Year’s Winner (Rors) Will … (Win, Top 10, Make the Cut, or Miss the Cut): Be discussed on TV, but will not tee it. (yah)
The Master’s Winner (Spieth) Will …: Make Cut (T4, one shot away from the playoff)
The US Open Win….nevermind
The current PGA Champ….nevermind
How many prior winners will be in the Top 10: 2 (1-Oosthuizen)
Will someone win it, or will everyone else lose it? Rickie will continue his stellar play from last week and close wire to wire. (I’d say ZJ won it…big putt on 18, great score in the playoff)
What will be the biggest story of the tournament? Rory isn’t there, Tiger shows solid form, and Victor Dubuisson holes a miracle bunker shot on Friday from the Road Hole bunker. (ZJ, Spieth ALMOST doing it)
Will you watch on Sunday? Probably not live, but I’ll watch the replay. (I watched a ton. Great tourney)
Tiger Woods will: Top 10 – he could play this place blindfolded. (I wish)
Dustin Johnson will: Miss Cut. (leader at the cut line…fall away on the weekend. yikes DJ)
Bubba Watson will: probably not even show up. (wouldn’t that be nice? MC)
Philefty will: Make Cut. (T20, -7)
Horschel (Current Fedex Cup champion) will: Miss Cut. (T30, -6)
Jimmy Walker (second to Spieth in Fedex Cup points) will: Make Cut. (T30, -6)
Zach Johnson (LG’s favorite player) will: lol. (lol indeed)
Miguel Angel Jimenez (LG’s ACTUAL favorite player) will: Make Cut. (MC, 75-73)
Nick Faldo (1990 winner at St. Andrews) will: probably break a club during missing the cut. (83 on the first day. yeah)
John Daly (1995 winner at St. Andrews) will: sell T-shirts out of his van in the parking lot. (first outside the cut line)
Tiger Woods (2000 and 2005 winner at St. Andrews) will: Top 10. Come on TIGER! (yeah..right)
Louis Oosthuizen (2010 winner at St. Andrews) will: Top 10. (my second of two prior champions in the top 10) (good call. T-2 in playoff)
Rickie Fowler (2015 Scottish Open Champion) will: WIN! (Dear God)
What will be the margin of victory: 2 (0.0–playoff)
Will Rory McIlroy make an appearance? Probably in some Nike commercial about overcoming adversity (adversity here being an injury during a pickup soccer game…) (yup)
JK
WIN: Tommy Fleetwood (one shot outside the cut.)
PLACE: Paul Casey (T74 at E)
SHOW: Jason Day (T4, -14–one shot out)
Winning Score: -18 (-15)
“Unknown” in the Top 10: uhm….Tommy Fleetwood (right….not exactly)
Last Year’s Winner (Rors) Will … (Win, Top 10, Make the Cut, or Miss the Cut): count his money (indeed)
The Master’s Winner (Spieth) Will …: Top 10 (yup)
The US Open Win….nevermind
The current PGA Champ….nevermind
How many prior winners will be in the Top 10: 3 (1)
Will someone win it, or will everyone else lose it? Fleetwood wins running away (ZJ won it)
What will be the biggest story of the tournament? Tommy Fking Fleetwood
Will you watch on Sunday? Tune in to watch Tommy Fleetwood run laps around the field? no thanks
Tiger Woods will: Top10. Probably T-4. (nope)
Dustin Johnson will: Top10. Probably T-6 (close enough.)
Bubba Watson will: storm off the course, proclaiming that “Scottish golf is stupid–bubba golf is rad.” (yes!)
Philefty will: Top10. The British Open is always good to philly (close)
Horschel (Current Fedex Cup champion) will: gator champ at a patron, causing said patron to throw beer at him.
Jimmy Walker (second to Spieth in Fedex Cup points) will: Top10.
Zach Johnson (LG’s favorite player) will: Top10
Miguel Angel Jimenez (LG’s ACTUAL favorite player) will: Make Cut.
Nick Faldo (1990 winner at St. Andrews) will: cheat on his wife or girlfriend. Again.
John Daly (1995 winner at St. Andrews) will: shirtless JD at St. Andrews? Can it be true?
Tiger Woods (2000 and 2005 winner at St. Andrews) will: Top10. Great showing, can’t quite get it done.
Louis Oosthuizen (2010 winner at St. Andrews) will: Just outside the Top 10. He’s doing good right now.
Rickie Fowler (2015 Scottish Open Champion) will: wear orange on sunday?
What will be the margin of victory: 8 shots
Will Rory McIlroy make an appearance? Nike, Omega, the PGA of America….yeah, he’ll be there…in recording at least.
The PowerFade is proud to announce a new contributor to our group – the Anonymous Mini-Tour Pro. JK and I have known this fellow for some time now. In the course of sharing our experience with the PowerFade with him, we discussed the possibility of including his thoughts on life on the Mini-tours and in the trenches of professional golf in a segment on our blog.
The Anonymous Mini-Tour Pro is currently in the top 1/2 of the money list on the PGA Latin American TOUR. He has finished well in events this season, and working his way to the PGA TOUR. Wisely choosing to keep his identity a secret, we hope he brings a prospective that JK and I cannot share, as well as some complimentary humor to our banal arguments over esoteric golf ideas. Without further adieu, The Anonymous Mini-Tour Pro’s “How to Make the U.S. Open more difficult:”
With the 2015 US Open fast approaching, many are wondering how the USGA will set up the course in the year’s most grueling test of golf. Make the greens firm and fast? Grow out the rough? Tuck the pins? Here is a list of other – and better – ideas to make 72 holes near Mr. Par a tremendous feat worthy of victory.
On the course:
Fairways
With the longest hitters seeming to dominate this era in golf, hitting the fairways has always been put at a premium by the USGA. But as every recreational golfer has experienced at their local public golf course, there is nothing more depressingly hilarious than hitting a ball slightly off line and having it careen off the cart path deep into the trees. Why limit having one of the most terrorizing obstacles only on the most poorly designed munis? Install cart paths down the left and right side of every single fairway. Trying to lay up at the corner of the dogleg? Boing! Time for a provisional.
Added bonus: The scuffs on your brand new Titleist will reintroduce you to the banana slice you thought you lost years before your first PGA Tour start.
Bunkers
Jack Nicklaus believes that bunkers should be a hazard, and thus reinvented the design of rakes at his tournament at Memorial to create small trenches in the sand where a player would encounter a partially embedded ball instead of a perfectly flat lie. I would like to take this concept one step further. And then six steps further after that. Drill holes in the bunkers all the way to China. It’s a long carry over the Pacific Ocean I hear.
Flags
Ever wonder why 99.9% of golf uses flags and one course – Merion – uses wicker baskets? Apparently flags are not a requirement, which is why they should be removed entirely. “But then how would the players know where to hit the ball?” asks a skeptic douche. What, you don’t believe the best players in the world can “will the ball into the hole”? Ever watched Tiger in 2000? Your skepticism sickens me.
Greens
The most difficult greens are hard as rocks and so fast and slick that downhillers are terrifying. Or at least, that’s what the USGA wants you to think. Actual golfers know that the most difficult greens are covered in the poop of the Canadian geese that somehow recently migrated to the exact GPS coordinates of greens 1 through 18. Importing an army of geese and their inevitable droppings to the course will make the greens extraordinarily difficult to navigate unless you are 2000 Tiger, who could ‘will’ his ball in a zigzag around a minefield of goose caca and into the hole. Even on the rare occasion where no poo is present, you will still need to make a half swing with your putter in order to get your 4 footer to the hole on the greens running a 1.17 on the stimp meter, and who hasn’t pulled that putt?
Added bonus: 1/3 of the field, who does not possess the ‘will to win’, will withdraw from contracting bird flu
Pins
Despite the challenging conditions of the fairways and browns, the most experienced TOUR pros will spend hours preparing and practicing to learn every inch of the putting surface in order to gain a competitive advantage over their adversaries. I think we’re missing out on an opportunity here – the pin sheet should indicate that the pin is 34 yards on and -4 from the edge on a green 30 yards deep. The good news is that a player will reduce his risk of bird flu from not being on the green. The bad news is everyone will be penalized from slow play for taking 30 frantic minutes to find the hole in the rough off the green.
Tee Boxes
By golly, what will he come up with in regards to the tee boxes? Rusty nails right beneath the surface of the grass? Having to do battle with Goliath before teeing off? Being required to do a keg stand while hitting your drive? These are all insane/brilliant notions. What I have to suggest, however, is much worse than any of these: align the tees on the tee box toward the trouble.
You might say, “Hey, that’s not so bad!” True, for normal human beings. However, 98% of the players on the PGA TOUR have beliefs and superstitions similar to ancient Aztec shaman. “The tee box had me aimed there” is a common expression heard after a ball is hooked out of bounds. What if the tees where placed diagonally across the tee box? Mayhem would ensue because everyone knows that golf is 90% mental.
Off the course:
Informing the field that golf is 0% mental
If you thought mayhem was already in full swing (get it? hilarious pun!), imagine what would happen if a team of scientists meaning not shaman and their witch-doctor cousins the sports psychologists were to inform players that golf, unless played by Luke Skywalker using the Force, is in fact, 100% physical and 0% mental?
For example, switching from one piece of metal with a flat face to a slightly differently designed piece of metal with a flat face that you just now made a putt with will not, in fact, instill you with ‘confidence’ on the greens. “You need to be relaxed and confident out there – distract yourself by thinking of your favorite sports team or attractive women” says one sports psychologist whose boner clearly curves up and not straight out and into his swing path. “You need to have tunnel vision and be fully focused on the shot at hand because distraction breeds uncertainty and uncertainty is the enemy of confidence” says another psychologist whilst sacrificing a lamb to the golf gods. If confidence was everything, drinking on the course would make you win every major championship. Instead, only John Daly has accomplished this.
Note: 98% of the PGA Tour is confident that I am wrong about this.
Offer free Stack-and-Tilt lessons on the range
Being stacked is only a good thing when discussing breast size. Inviting Mac O’Grady, Golf Machine instructors, Stack-and-Tilt specialists, and 2011 Sean Foley before he discovered Trackman, all of whom teach players to stay on their left sides, onto the range for free lessons will truly make golf more difficult. By the weekend, everyone will be -11 degrees steep on their drivers and not only missing every fairway but not even accurate enough to hit the cart paths. In addition, only those with the wrist strength to handle using your wedges to create 20 foot deep divots/pits and the dexterity to afterwards climb out of them with rope and your wedge balanced in your teeth will be able to complete the round.
Added bonus: the rope is technically considered a club which is a two stroke penalty
Having to watch the Golf Boys video before teeing off
What greater adversity could there be? Maybe having to watch Ben Crane slap himself with a foam covered paddle again? I guess golf is 90% mental after all.
BONUS: the AMTP’s U.S. Open Predictions:
Winner: Check back on Sunday night for my prediction of the winner.
Winning Score: Would be much higher if only the USGA heeded my advice.
Runner Up: Asserting that the word “run” has anything to do with golf is yet another ploy by the golf media to falsely portray golfers as athletes in an attempt to compete for ratings against LeBron being in the NBA Finals.
Low Amateur: Some guy whose name ends in (a) and has to go through life being angry every time he tries to save an eponymous document in Microsoft Word and it rejects having parentheses in the title.
“Unknown” in the Top 10: Currently unknown.
Last Year’s Winner (Martin Kaymer) Will … : Carry on his tradition of sinking the dreams of American golfers, a practice that began with the 2012 Ryder Cup and continued with the 2014 US Open.
How many prior US Open winners will be in the Top 10: This category would have been much easier to predict if Phil Mickelson had just won his first US Open so that it would count when we pencil him in for 2nd place.
Masters Champion (Speith) will …: Withdraw from the huge brain freeze he got when doing that PGA Tour commercial.
British Open Champion/PGA Champion (Rory) will …: be seen in a commercial hitting a drive into the horizon while wearing a watch, which will initially make people want to do the same until they remember how incredibly uncomfortable that is for your wrist.
Sergio Garcia will…: dominate the headlines with a hilarious faux-pas.
Dustin Johnson will…: host a party on Wednesday night.
Rickie Fowler will…: inspire a generation of young golfers to dress very conservatively.
Jimmy Walker (current 2nd Fedex points) will…: cause brief but repeated confusion as to why the broadcasters are discussing whiskey.
Adam Scott will…: contend in the US Open for the last time.
What will be the major storyline of the tournament: this US Open will be remembered as the dramatic last stand for players using long putters until they all see their careers wither away.
Tiger Woods will…: Oscillate back and forth between he’s definitely going to win!/he’s back!/he’s the best ever!/Chris Como is a genius! and he’ll never get back to where he was!/he’s finished!/Chris Como sucks!, with every birdie and bogey that he makes throughout the week. He will also only hit 60-80 shots per round but will have over 100 slow-mo analyses of his swing during the coverage.
Bold Prediction?: The tournament gets rained out without a single shot being hit and the USGA bans Washington from its list of future US Open sites.
Quick Review: Slaying the Tiger by Shane Ryan
June 15, 2015
Over the last few days, I’ve spent time here and there reading through a bit of Shane Ryan’s Slaying the Tiger. I picked it up after reading a short excerpt on http://www.golfwrx.com about the Masters and the membership at Augusta National Golf Club, and even though I’ve only managed to get through a couple of chapters, I don’t think there is a single golfer that follows the PGA TOUR at all that would not be fascinated by the stories in this book.
Ryan does an incredible job (thus far) of researching his subjects, creating a storyline that feels like it has progression, and telling the story in a way that is relatable to the average golfer. In short, he posits a more clear picture of life on TOUR than we get from your average Golf Channel broadcast and associated advertising.
From the book: “As the golf writer for Bill Simmons’s Grantland, Shane Ryan is the perfect herald for the sport’s new age. In Slaying the Tiger, he embeds himself for a season on the PGA Tour, where he finds the game far removed from the genteel rhythms of yesteryear. Instead, he discovers a group of mercurial talents driven to greatness by their fear of failure and their relentless perfectionism. From Augusta to Scotland, with an irreverent and energetic voice, Ryan documents every transcendent moment, every press tent tirade, and every controversy that made the 2014 Tour one of the most exciting and unpredictable in recent memory.
Here are indelibly drawn profiles of the game’s young guns: Rory McIlroy, the Northern Irish ace who stepped forward as the game’s next superstar; Patrick Reed, a brash, boastful competitor with a warrior’s mentality; Dustin Johnson, the brilliant natural talent whose private habits sabotage his potential; and Jason Day, a resilient Aussie whose hardscrabble beginnings make him the Tour’s ultimate longshot. Here also is the bumptious Bubba Watson, a devout Christian known for his unsportsmanlike outbursts on the golf course; Keegan Bradley, a flinty New Englander who plays with a colossal chip on his shoulder; twenty-one-year-old Jordan Spieth, a preternaturally mature Texan carrying the hopes of the golf establishment; and Rickie Fowler, the humble California kid striving to make his golf speak louder than his bright orange clothes.”
Pick it up today for only $11.84 on your Kindle (or your iPhone) at Amazon: http://www.amazon.com/Slaying-Tiger-Year-Inside-Ropes-ebook/dp/B00N6PD1WK/ref=tmm_kin_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&sr=8-1&qid=1434414898.
Predictions: 2015 U.S. Open
June 15, 2015
It’s that time again. It’s hell week. It’s our national championship, the ultimate test of golf, this year at a new site – Chambers Bay. More so than most years, the story prior to the championship has been the course, and the lack of a clear favorite. To help definitively resolve this issue, JK and I provide you with our picks:
Top 10
1 Jordan Spieth -5
T2 Louis Oosthuizen -4
T2 Dustin Johnson -4
T4 Adam Scott -3
T4 Cameron Smith -3
T4 Branden Grace -3
7 Charl Schwartzel -2
8 Brandt Snedeker -1
T9 Rory McIlroy E
T9 Shane Lowry E
T9 Jason Day E
T12 Kevin Kisner 1
T12 Matt Kuchar 1
JK:
Winner: Kevin Kisner (Jordan Spieth; Kisner T-12)
Winning Score: -1 (-5)
Runner Up: Justin Rose (Louis Oosthuizen and Dustin Johnson)
Low Amateur: Beau Hossler (Brian Campbell at T27, +5. Hossler made the cut, finishing T58 at +12)
“Unknown” in the Top 10: Billy Hurley III (MC with an 80 on the first day. Cameron Smith T4 at -3)
Last Year’s Winner (Martin Kaymer) Will … (Win, Top10, Make the Cut, or Miss the Cut): Top 10 (MC)
How many prior US Open winners will be in the Top 10: 2 (1 – Rory McIlroy)
Masters Champion (Speith) will …: Make the Cut (ha….)
British Open Champion/PGA Champion (Rory) will …: Top 10 (correct)
Sergio Garcia will…: Make the cut (correct, T18)
Dustin Johnson will…: Top 10 (correct, T2)
Rickie Fowler will…: Make the cut (not exactly)
Tiger Woods will…: Make the cut (uhh)
Jimmy Walker (current 2nd Fedex points) will…: Miss the cut (made it, T58)
Adam Scott will…: miss the cut (T4 with a scintillating 64 on Sunday)
What will be the major storyline of the tournament: the course (pretty much. course was awful. Although it could easily be Spieth’s second, or DJ’s blunder).
Bold Prediction?: i just told you Kevin Kisner was going to with the US Open. That’s not bold enough? (not a bad guess)
LG:
Winner: Dustin Johnson (so close)
Winning Score: -4 (but yet)
Runner Up: Rickie Fowler (so far away)
Low Amateur: Bryson DeChambeau (MC)
“Unknown” in the Top 10: Kevin Na (first off, T48 at +8. But second off…no, Kevin Na is not “unknown.” He’s a TOUR winner, LG)
Last Year’s Winner (Martin Kaymer) Will … (Win, Top10, Make the Cut, or Miss the Cut): Miss the Cut (correct)
How many prior US Open winners will be in the Top 10: 0 (1 – Rors)
Masters Champion (Speith) will …: Make the cut, but fade on the weekend (Fade into the fairway on 18, securing the trophy)
British Open Champion/PGA Champion (Rory) will …: Top 10 (correct)
Sergio Garcia will…: Top 10 (close)
Dustin Johnson will…: Win! (close)
Rickie Fowler will…: Second! (not close)
Tiger Woods will…: Play at least 2 rounds. (“least”)
Jimmy Walker (current 2nd Fedex points) will…: Make the cut (yup)
Adam Scott will…: Make the cut (Top10)
What will be the major storyline of the tournament: DJ holds on to win at a ridiculous course. He is paired with Rory in the final group, but Rory becomes a non-factor. Fowler, playing one group ahead, makes a run, but ultimately, DJ wins with a solid par on 18. (would have been cool. maybe next time)
Bold Prediction?: See storyline. Also, Fowler wears orange on Sunday. (hard to confirm what fowler was wearing, since he was absent)
Course Review: Blackheath Golf Club
April 28, 2015
Preamble: I have been sitting at my computer for roughly 15 minutes now trying to figure out how to start this review. I feel like this used to be easier, or maybe I just used to be better at this… Also, I apologize in advance for the lack of photos in this review. The photos I took do not do the course justice, so I decided not to use them.
Let’s just rip the bandage off and start writing. For the last several months, I have been living in the Detroit, MI area and attempting to keep my hands warm enough to hit a few balls. See LG on golf in the tundra. One great takeaway I’ve had from my time here is to learn just how excellent Michigan golf can be. Don’t quote me on this, but I’m pretty sure Michigan has 3.2 golf courses for every golfer that lives in this state. Northern Michigan also has some of the most breathtaking courses I’ve ever had a chance to play. Later, I’ll post a review of my 9 hole round at Arcadia Bluffs. The pictures cannot begin to show the elevation change and character of that amazing property. More to come there. Another added benefit of having so many amazing courses – tons of selection, quicker rounds than I’m used to in California, and excellent courses are highly affordable!
Now for the good stuff. Today, I review Blackheath Golf Club located in Rochester, MI. So, I was sitting on the couch last night trying to decide where to play. Not having a set of golf buddies in Michigan, any sense of which courses are worth playing, and no last minute access to the Red Wings game, I decide to tool around on golfnow.com and golfadvisor.com to book a tee time for Saturday morning. Blackheath catches my eye for a few reasons: 1) bent grass greens 2) links style course 3) $37. That might be enough to sell me alone, but the reviews on golfadvisor confirm that the course is generally kept in very good shape. Anyone that knows JK and me knows that this is a no brainer. I book the 10:18 am spot through the course’s website because it’s cheaper than golfnow.com. (Sorry to out you, golfnow, but hey, you weren’t the cheapest).
Upon arrival, I know I’m coming to a place that is purely about golf. The only visible structure on the course is the pro shop/maintenance shed. To the right is the practice facility where you can take your mish-mash bucket of balls and warm up, or just head straight to the first tee. Don’t expect a large menu in the grill, mainly because there isn’t a grill. The staff will happily make change for you for the vending machine, however. No bells, no frills, just golf. I love it.
While the course had not grown in entirely from the winter, I can confirm that the bent grass greens were in immaculate shape. These could be the best greens I’ve had a chance to play in Michigan, and they definitely rival the condition of many I’ve played in California. My deepest thanks to the greenkeeping staff!
As far as the layout is concerned, my immediate impression was that this Par 71 is a true links style course. Don’t let the yardage fool you. 6700-6800 yards here will play much longer than the scorecard yardage when the wind is blowing its normal pace. That 73/137 is no joke. The gentleman in the pro shop told me it is more of a “heathland” style course (see definition found via the Google), which was a fascinating new term for me to learn. In either case, this is truly one of the courses any golf trip to the area should include, and residents of the area should play regularly. For a course located in an area that is generally flat, there was a surprising amount of elevation change built into the course. While most of this must have been manufactured by the architects, it did not have the “cookie cutter” quality that is generally off-putting about those types of courses. Moreover, the architect took care to fabricate run up and collection areas with these elevation changes that play the way these features are meant to be played – fast and firm, but penal if shots are not executed well.
As I tend to do in my reviews, I focus on the par 3s and par 5 holes because I tend to enjoy those the most. Blackheath has five par 3s and four par 5s, and they contain my favorite and least favorite holes on the course. My favorite hole was the par 3 12th. I wish the picture had turned out better, but today, it played 214 yards with a steady left to right wind. The pin was cut in the front and framed between two massive heather-faced bunkers. I drew 4 iron with the holes of holding up a draw into the breeze and softly landing 3 feet left of the flag. 4 additional shots later, I’m walking off the green with a spoiled round and a giant smile on my face. Golf does that some times. If there’s a criticism of this course, it must be the design of the par 5 11th. The 600 yard hole bends sharply around the outside of the course’s par 5 8th. Without any real penalty for missing the drive, the prudent way to play this hole is up the 8th fairway to take a large bite out of the yardage. While I believe that courses should always allow for some creativity off the tee, the play should always be to the fairway that the hole is designed around.
All in all, for a true links (heathland) style experience, I would highly recommend Blackheath golf club. Towards the summer when the course firms up and the run up areas play as they are designed to play, this will be a true test of a complete set of golf skills. The course is kept in immaculate shape, and the lack of trees on the course will keep the greens and fairways firm, fast, and playable throughout the season. If played from the appropriate tees, this would be an excellent course for players who may not carry the ball very far or who may be newer to the game. This style course lends itself to “ground play” and can help build confidence of players who may have trouble getting the ball into the air. Moreover, only 3 or 4 holes have water or hazards that may come into play, so if you’re trying to figure out where your driver is going, this could be a good test round.
That’s all for now, folks. If I get a chance to play again, I’ll update this post with pictures.
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