Predictions: 2012 British Open
July 18, 2012
UPDATED 7/23/2012: Way to go Ernie!
I know they call it “The Open Championship,” but we’ve got one of those that’s pretty important too, so I’m going with what they used to call it. I looked back to last year’s predictions (here https://thepowerfade.com/2011/07/18/conversation-british-open-predictions/), and it’s a good thing LG and I have other careers to take besides predicting golf tournaments. Anyway, without further ado:
7/17/2012
JK:
Winner: Phil Mickelson m/c – Ernie Els
Winning Score: -3 -7
Runner Up: Lee Westwood T-45 at +6 – Adam Scott
Low Amateur: Are there really only two amateurs in the field? How about Alan Dunbar i think they both m/c
“Unknown” in the Top 10: Greg Chalmers T-45 – Nicholas Colsaerts was T-7, Alexander Noren was T-9, Thorbjorn Olessen was T-9. Other than that, actually a pretty strong Top 10:
1 Ernie Els -7
2 Adam Scott -6
T3 Tiger Woods -3
T3 Brandt Snedeker -3
T5 Luke Donald -2
T5 Graeme McDowell -2
T7 Thomas Aiken -1
T7 Nicolas Colsaerts -1
T9 Ian Poulter E
T9 Zach Johnson E
T9 Miguel Jimenez E
T9 Mark Calcavecchia E
T9 Matt Kuchar E
T9 Geoff Ogilvy E
T9 Vijay Singh E
T9 Dustin Johnson E
T9 Alexander Noren E
T9 Thorbjorn Olesen E
Last Year’s Winner (Darren Clarke) Will … (Win, Top10, Make the Cut, or Miss the Cut): Drink a lot of beer on Saturday and Sunday. M/c yah
The Master’s Winner (Bubba) Will …: wear pink socks on the plane home. M/c was in it for awhile; T-23
The US Open Winner (Webb) Will …: Stay home with his wife and potential new baby. Congrats Webb
The current PGA Champion (Keegan Bradley) will …: miss the cut. still learning how to do this thing T-34
How many prior winners will be in the Top 10: 3 YES! Tiger Woods, Ernie Els, and Marc Calcavecchia
Will someone win it, or will everyone else lose it? Someone will win it. Sans Carnoustie, the British Open is usually won by the most composed player. Els won it, but Scott defintely lost it as well
What will be the biggest story of the tournament? Phil finally comes through at the British fail
Who is most likely to “Tom Watson At Turnberry” it? Tiger he kind of did, but it was clearly Adam Scott who choked it
Will you watch on Sunday? Probably about half of it yep
Jason Dufner will: Top 10 T-31
Tiger Woods will: Top 10 Correct, T-3
Rory McIlroy will: Make the cut Correct, T-60
Zach Johnson will: Make the cut (no hating, LG) Top 10, T-9
Steve Stricker will: miss the cut T-23. Stricker played pretty well considering
Dustin Johnson will: he’s actually playing? make the cut Top 10, T-9. Good job freak of nature
LG:
Winner: TW T-3
Winning Score: -3 -7
Runner Up: Justin Rose M/c
Low Amateur: Are there really only two amateurs in the field? The one JK didn’t pick. both m/c
“Unknown” in the Top 10: Does Kevin Na count? If not, let’s go with Sam Walker. First, you know Kevin Na doesn’t count. Second, he shot 73-77 to m/c. Finally, Sam Walker shot 76-70 to m/c
Last Year’s Winner (Darren Clarke) Will … (Win, Top10, Make the Cut, or Miss the Cut): MC sorry Clarkie
The Master’s Winner (Bubba) Will …: MC T-23
The US Open Winner (Webb) Will …: MC If by “MC” you mean “not show up because he was home with his wife waiting on their new baby to arrive,” you’d be correct, but I suspect that is not the case.
The current PGA Champion (Keegan Bradley) will …: Make the cut T-34
How many prior winners will be in the Top 10: 2 3
Will someone win it, or will everyone else lose it? Hard to say – depends on the weather. Let’s go with Tiger wins it. Tiger won nothing
What will be the biggest story of the tournament? Tiger’s 15th. do you just copy/paste this from one prediction to another?
Who is most likely to “Tom Watson At Turnberry” it? Lee Westwood. Go read a book, guy. I wish it were Westwood.
Will you watch on Sunday? Yes. Live? no. did you?
Jason Dufner will: Make Cut T-31
Tiger Woods will: Win T-3
Rory McIlroy will: Top 10. T-60
Zach Johnson will: MC Top 10, T-9
Steve Stricker will: MC (sorry, Steve) T-23 (sorry, LG
Dustin Johnson will: Top 5. Top 5 isn’t a choice. He was close though. T-9
Play of the Week 33
June 19, 2012
This week, I’m afraid I have to give the POTW to the USGA. Typically, I am not a fan of the US Open. When I’ve watched the tournament in years past, I’ve typically found it to be rather boring for a number of reasons. In most cases, it is pointlessly difficult, to where even the best in the world can make nothing of the courses (Oakmont, 2007; Shinnecock, 2004). In many cases, the winner is boring or surprising–as if we were playing the John Deere classic instead of a Major (e.g., Lucas Glover 2009, Angel Cabrera 2007, Michael Campbell 2005, Reteif Goosen 2001/2004). Often, it’s just a war of attrition, where the one player who’s lucky enough to find his ball on every hole manages to sift through the gauntlet and survive the fray (GMac, 2010). Or, the tournament is just boring (McIlroy, 2011).
But every few years, the USGA gets it right. One of the most memorable tournaments I’ve ever watched was the US Open at Torrey Pines in 2008, where Tiger edged Rocco Mediate with a gutsy performance that just outlasted one of the most tenacious players in the game. Or 1999, where the image of Payne Stewart sinking a 20-foot putt to save par on the 72nd hole has become an icon of the game of golf. But in 1999, although the winning score was -1, the course played fairly. It showcased how the greatest in the world (a very young Tiger, a younger than now Phil) could play when the pressure cooker was on, and Payne’s lasting legacy of 1-putting the last 3 holes to hold on was truly a riveting watch.
Like ’08 and ’99, this year, the USGA got it right. The US Open this year wasn’t flashy. It was a simple test–a par 70, even. No water hazards to fly over, no forced carries, not even more than a few fairway bunkers. But Olympic Club was just right. The winning score a nice +1, with Webb Simpson coming out on top over Jim Furyk–trying to hold on–and Graeme McDowell, who charged in at the end but couldn’t seal the deal. Webb posted his second 68 of the weekend hours before GMac and Furyk walked off the course, leaving the scene for great tension and excitement. Olympic was a true test–not just a slaughterhouse. It TESTED the best in the world, but the test could be passed. Players didn’t complain that it was unfair or say that it was too penal. Instead, they went about their business, and the winner played under par both rounds on the weekend. When was the last time you said that about a US Open winner? (well, other than 2011, when Rors was on an absolute tear, but who else?) And, for the second time this year, the winner of a major has come from a pairing other than the final group, which is some welcome excitement that we don’t often see.
I’m not saying this was as exciting as the Masters is every year, or that the US Open is no longer my least favorite of the majors. What the USGA typically does to the players isn’t right, on any level. But this year, the course was what a true test should be. When a player masters that test, he should get the trophy, and Webb did. So, to the USGA, we solute you. And, to Webb Simpson, congrats on passing the test.
Predictions: Masters 2012
April 10, 2012
This being one of our favorite posts to go through each year, we had to come out of hibernation to get our Masters predictions on board. I’m excited that the year is starting over again. Tiger has already won once at a real PGA event, and the excitement is back in the game.
On the wake of a pretty poor showing last year (see https://thepowerfade.wordpress.com/2011/04/11/conversation-masters-predictions/), LG and I look to fall far short of our mark set last year.
So, without further ado, here’s our predictions:
original predictions posted 4/3. updated answers in bold posted 4/10.
JK:
Winner: Tiger Woods —-> uh. no. bubba
Winning Score: -10 —-> YES! I GOT ONE!
Runner Up: Phil Mickelson —-> oosthuizen in the playoff. Phil T-3, though. Not bad
Low Amateur: I wish I could say Randall Lewis, but it will probably be Patrick Cantlay —-> YES! I GOT ANOTHER! WOO HOO!
“Unknown” in the Top 10: Chez Reavie —-> m/c. The only real “unknown” in the top 10 was Peter Hansen
Most difficult hole vs. par: 11 —-> i think this was it, but can’t confirm
Easiest hole vs. par: 13 —-> same as above
Last Year’s Winner (Charl Schwartzel) Will … (Win, Top10, Make the Cut, or Miss the Cut): make the cut, but be outside of the Top 10. —-> correct – T50
Sandy Lyle Will…(Win, Top10, Make the Cut, or Miss the Cut): miss the cut, yet again —-> CORRECT!
How many prior winners will be in the Top 10: 3 —-> just 1 – PHIL
How many times will Hank Haney’s book be referenced on Sunday? twice —-> 0. sad
When will Sergio Garcia implode? Front 9 on Sunday —-> shot 40 on the front 9 on saturday, but started out with a double and two bogeys on sunday. I’m going to say this is correct, even though he finished T12
Dustin Johnson will… hit some golf balls really, really far, but he can’t chip well enough to compete. I’ll put him in the Top 10 at best, more likely 15th or so. —->uhg.
US Open Champion (Rory McIlroy) will … play better than he did on the back 9 last year. Made cut but outside of top 10. —->T40 shooting 77-76 on the weekend. CORRECT!
British Open Champion (Darren Clarke) will … show up drunk. MC. —-> also CORRECT. lift your pint Darren
PGA Champion (Keegan Bradley) will … MC. Belly putters don’t work at Augusta. —-> nope – T27. not bad for keegan. of course, now his winning percentage has been cut in half for majors, but whatever.
World #1 (Luke Donald) will … Top 10. Still no major for the world #1. Sad. —-> T32. why are we talking about luke donald?
What will be the major storyline of the tournament? Tiger playing just like he did in 1997. —-> Oosthuizen’s double-eagle, bubba winning dramatically, a bunch of guys in contention…great tourney this year. can’t wait for ‘013.
LG:
Winner: TW! —-> wrong
Winning Score: -14 —-> wrong. see JK answer above for the CORRECT answer
Runner Up: Rory —-> wrong.
Low Amateur: Screw it. Lewis. Too good a story not to pick him. —-> wish it was right, but it’s still WRONG. however, see JK answer above for the CORRECT answer
“Unknown” in the Top 10: Jason Dufner. (I’m going to call him an unknown b/c he has no wins). —-> WRONG. although dufner was in it, 75-75 wont get it done on the weekend.
Most difficult hole vs. par: 10 —-> can’t confirm, but i’m pretty sure you’re wrong, just by the answers above
Easiest hole vs. par: 13 —->when you copy JK, you get the right answer. Imagine that.
Last Year’s Winner (Charl Schwartzel) Will … (Win, Top10, Make the Cut, or Miss the Cut): fizzle out. Make the cut, but then shoot even for the weekend. —-> pretty much yah. lots of fizzle.
Sandy Lyle Will…(Win, Top10, Make the Cut, or Miss the Cut): Who? MC. —-> wrong. the correct answer was “solo last place.” nice try though.
How many prior winners will be in the Top 10: 4 —-> just one. phil the thrill.
How many times will Hank Haney’s book be referenced on Sunday? 0. Tiger’s “Thanksgiving Fiasco,” on the other hand…. 18. —-> thank god, no.
When will Sergio Garcia implode? Saturday. on 12. —-> he birdied 12 on saturday, so you’re completely WRONG
Dustin Johnson will… be eating ice cream on the couch. Keep up with the news, JK. http://espn.go.com/golf/masters12/story/_/id/7770093/2012-masters-dustin-johnson-withdraws-unspecified-injury —->ice cream? didn’t you mean coke?
US Open Champion (Rory McIlroy) will … Lead the charge into the weekend and then watch Tiger walk right by him on the back 9. —-> uhh…i’m pretty sure he bested Tiger here. WRONG
British Open Champion (Darren Clarke) will … enjoy the first two days in the ropes and the last two outside the ropes. MC. —-> yah. we all saw this coming. at least he enjoyed the beer.
PGA Champion (Keegan Bradley) will … Top 10. —->wrong again
World #1 (Luke Donald) will … not hit the ball far enough to matter – make the cut. —-> well…yah. pretty much
What will be the major storyline of the tournament? Phil Michelson chokes on pimento and cheese sandwich…Or Tiger wins 5th green jacket. Yeah. That one. —-> Phil finishes T-3. that was a much bigger story.
as for your “bold prediction”….a little too bold buddy.
congrats to bubba–and to the guy who caught Oosthuizen’s ball in the stands…that lucky SOB.
Fail of the Week 6
July 19, 2011
This week’s FAIL goes to our American golfers at the British Open, Phickelson and DJ. American golf has been hurting for the last several years (since Tiger’s surgery and subsequent tree-driving incident). We count on the big hitters, and they continually let us down.
Dustin Johnson has had chances at last year’s US Open, last year’s PGA, and this year’s British Open. But last year, he choked away the US Open with a final-round 82. Then he failed to read the rules and incurred a 2-shot penalty for grounding his club, taking him out of a playoff with headcase Bubba Watson and Martin Kaymer, eventual winner. And this year, for some reason he just couldn’t keep himself from jacking his second shot OB to the right on a par 5 at the Open Championship, again incurring a 2-shot penalty and again losing a major for it. Although Darren Clarke definitely won the championship, DJ had a shot to put pressure on him; when the ball went out of bounds, Clarke was looking at a 4-shot lead with 5 holes, which is doable even for a hacker like me.
However, the bigger disappointment had to be Phil “Phickelson” Mickelson. Mickelson shot a five under par front nine of 30 (see http://sports.yahoo.com/golf/pga/players/Phil+Mickelson/29/scorecard/2011/29). He had birdies on holes 2, 4, 6, and 10 and an eagle on 7. He sat at -6 for the round on the 11th tee box when the lights went out. For some reason, Phickelson rushed his 2-footer for par 3 on the 11th and bogeyed, sending him into a tailspin, thereafter bogeying 13, 15, and 16 and failing to make birdies on some of the easiest holes on the course (14 and 17). It was like he was a different golfer after the 3-putt–and, really, for no reason other than his own head got in the way. For all the tournaments Phil has won, the old choker is still lurking in there.
Once again, American golf comes up short. So, to you Phil and DJ, you are this week’s FAIL.
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