Make Golf Fun Again
July 4, 2016
Happy Am-exit day, everyone! In the spirit of the occasion, the PowerFade team has decided to do something that the country as a whole is threatening to do: when faced with mass hysteria about the state of an alleged problem, we’re going to throw out everything anyone has ever done to try to fix a problem and replace it with an entirely new regime that has never been tried or tested. In this case, we’re talking about the rules of golf.
In the wake of yet another rules fiasco at the U.S. Open that could have cost Dustin Johnson yet another U.S. Open title, several questions keep coming to mind: why are the rules of golf so damn hard to understand? Shouldn’t they be easier to understand? Why isn’t the USGA following their own rules? And most important: are the arcane and unapproachable rules contributing to why golf is falling off in popularity in this country and around the world?
After discussions between JK, LG, and the AMTP, we have devised a set of rules for the weekend golf crew that we think will make golf fun again. Disclaimer: in order to prevent these rules from becoming as cumbersome as “the Rules of Golf,” we have assumed a certain amount of knowledge of the “Rules” and of golf in general. We’re not a rules making body, and the scores that result from playing with our versions should not be posted for handicap purposes. Read: You’ll end up losing a lot of money in your regular $2 nassau if you start posting these scores, so don’t do it.
Rules of PowerFade Golf
Goals of our rules: Make golf faster, more fun, and keep it in the spirit of the game.
- The Game:
- …it’s golf. Hit the ball into the hole in as few strokes as possible.
- Playing the game:
- Winter rules apply everywhere – No bad lies. If you roll into a divot off the tee – move it. If you get a fried egg in a bunker, roll it out, but stay in the bunker. If you get a gnarly lie in the rough, improve it. Mud ball? clean it.
- Scoring
- No penalty shots will be assessed for hitting into or out of hazards. Not even if you ground your club in a bunker.
- All marked or staked hazards/Out of bounds will be played as lateral hazards if possible. This means drop it within approximately two flag sticks of the nearest point you think it went into the hazard.
- If it is not possible to play a hazard/OB, yell over at your opponent and come to a fast and reasonable agreement about where you should play from. Remember, karma is a bitch.
- On the green: only intentional putts count toward your stroke total. If the ball moves closer to the hole at address without an intentional stroke, move it back to where it was. If it moves away from the hole, play it as it lies.
- On the green: no more than 3 putts are allowed. If you reach the green in 1 shot, the worst you can do is 4. Once you reach 3 putts, pick up. If the greens have been punched in the last 3 weeks, automatic two putts are mandatory.
- Once you reach 8 strokes, pick up. If you both reach 8 strokes, the hole is pushed.
- Tees: Any set of tees that are 6,400 yards or shorter. It may help to modify the scorecard by tearing off the top two sets of tees that are no longer relevant, or even part of the course, as far as you are concerned.
- Equipment
- No limit on the number of clubs in your bag. (You’re welcome, Phil)
- You may only use one putter per hole (no switching putters between putts). (Sorry, Phil)
- You may NOT adjust an adjustable club during the round.
- Time of play: 15 minutes per hole or fewer. There’s no scoring penalty for violating this rule, but don’t be a pill. If your group violates this rule more than once in a given match, each member of the group must donate $5 to the local First Tee organization per violation. If, at any point during the match, the total amount of the bets placed on the first tee has been exceeded by repeated violations of the $5 rule, any member of the group that has not already deposited his or her clubs in the nearest lake should do so, and everyone should trudge into the bar so as not to have wasted the entire Saturday.
- In general, discrepancies that are not addressed by the rules should be handled with common sense. To the extent common sense is not available, trial by combat is appropriate, assuming no violation of Rule 6.
Next up: The PowerFade team reviews how well the rules accomplished their objectives by playing a round or two using them. Please feel free to post your own reviews in the comments below if you use these rules during your next round! If you’re going to troll this, please do so in a way that makes us laugh 🙂
(AMTP) Shooting Your Best Score Ever
June 28, 2016
The Anonymous Mini-Tour Pro presents: Shooting Your Best Score Ever
Are you looking to shoot your best score ever?
Well, good luck sifting through the red-stake-marked pool of advice that exists in all types of outlets that cover golf – magazines, the golf channel, your local pro, and of course your golf buddies. Good news though! This column will guide you through accomplishing just that.
The bad news, however, is that it’s going to require you to take a tee and prick the massively inflated bubble that is your sense of self. Take Mr. 85 for example: he goes around with his single digit index of 9.9 and consistently throws away shots by thinking that he should employ the same strategy as the pros. The most important lesson he should learn in order to shoot his best score ever is that everyone is really terrible at golf.
And yet, one might say, Tiger in 2000 won practically every tournament – he wasn’t bad at golf! False. Tiger would consistently take 60 to 75 shots to complete a round, of which only 18 of his shots would find the bottom of the hole. I will double check the numbers but I believe that is way less than 100% of his shots. Perhaps even below 90%. So you see, if Tiger would only put 18 of 69 shots in the hole, a terrible rate, and he was best ever, think how bad Mr. 85 must be at golf – really, really awful!
The goal in golf is to be the least awful you can be. Remember that next time you aim for a tucked pin from 240 out to an island green guarded by alligators.
So let’s go through some common scenarios and see if Mr. 85 can alter his decision-making in an attempt to shoot his least horrible score ever:
Putting
A classic scene when observing Mr. 85 preparing to hit a 15 foot putt is a series of useless rituals that will not put a dent in the high likelihood that he will 3 putt. The problem lies in the fact that the plumbob, 360 degree green reading, and 7 practice strokes do not turn him from a horrible putter into an okay putter but instead turn him from a horrible putter into a still horrible putter whose stupid rituals distract him from having correct speed on his putts and also hold up the group behind him – the same group who earlier in the round were also doing stupid putting rituals but are now drunk and stopped caring about score and may get violent if they see one more plumbob out of Mr. 85. Let’s break it down:
Best player ever: makes 10% of 15 footers
Mr. 85’s opinion: “What do you mean 3 putt? I’m gonna drill this!”
Mr. 85 reality: No drilling but many, many 3 putts
Solution: Skip the pre-shot routine and lag it to 11 inches short and 7 inches right of the hole for an unexciting 2 putt. You’ll thank me after the round.
Chipping
While putting is usually a struggle for Mr. 85, chipping is usually a relative strength. Just kidding! His chipping is putrid. Unfortunately, Mr. 85 does not know this because he hit that one chip close to the hole that one time. Let’s take the common situation of having a tough chip over a bunker with little green to work with.
Best player ever: hits a nice flop over the bunker that will be close 30% of the time, 15 feet past 69% of the time, and flubbed in the bunker once in a long while.
Mr. 85’s opinion: “Watch and learn, boys!”
Mr. 85 reality: 49.9% chili chunk in the bunker, 49.9% skull over the green, and that one chip that one time.
Solution: Chip it 15 feet past the hole, where he will probably 3 putt.
Iron shots
Putting and chipping are undoubtedly important but at least a 3 putt is only a single lost stroke. The result of certain iron shots, on the other ungloved hand, can be the golf equivalent of being beaten over the head by Old Tom Morris’ rusty brassie from the 19th century.
There’s no doubt that Mr. 85’s iron game is hideous. He hits chunks, skulls, slices, hooks, and whatever other negative golf terms exist to describe shots. There’s also no doubt that he will continue to be horrible. However, there is hope! Mr. 85 could change his target line. Tucked pin surrounded by bunkers? Go for the middle. Island green? Go for the middle. More than 200 out over water? Lay up.
Let’s take a specific example: second shot on 18 at bay hill from 210 out with the pin back right.
Mr. 85’s opinion: “Here comes a controlled power butter drawfade right at the pin!”
Mr. 85 reality: Too gruesome to be explained in this column. Not for the faint-hearted.
Solution: Go for left and long of the green where your chunk, skull, slice, and hook will all find grass and where you can chip on and make your 5, which is 2.5 strokes below your current average after choosing That-Which-Is-Too-Gruesome-To-Be-Explained.
Mr. 85 might be asking: well, at what distance should I stop aiming for the middle and start aiming at the pin? 150 yards? Answer: Hmmm….yeahhh…. how about at 100 yards and under just to be safe.
Driving:
The good news with the irons is that the worst Mr. 85 can do (usually) is hit it in the water. That means a nice drop up to where it entered the hazard! The driver, conversely, can introduce a whole new level of punishment in the form of white stakes.
The problem with Mr. 85’s driving is that he believes that he hits ‘ehhhh…. around 70% of my fairways?’ when in reality he’s hit 619 banana slices in a row. Now fast forward to Mr. 85 teeing off on a hole with an array of beautiful, soon to be damaged houses down the right side. Now fast forward to banana slice 620. Now fast forward to Mr. 85 calculating how long it would take him to hop the fence, hit a nice recovery shot back to the fairway without taking too big a divot off of the back yard lawn, and hop back over the fence, all before the angry pitbull in the yard tries to eat his FootJoys and the drunken group behind him gets rowdy. And that’s the best case scenario – worse case is Mr. 85’s playing partners catch him trying to play his shot from out of bounds.
If the latter happens, he would have to re-tee where he will be hitting 3. 3! With no progress made! Remember the beating you took from Old Tom Morris’ brassie? This is way worse. This is like taking Old Tom Morris’ spoonie, dipping it in a pool of anthrax, spearing a beaver with it, feeding it to an alligator, and then having it bite your leg while you’re doing the move where you take your shoes off to play the ball on the edge of the lake even though the sign CLEARLY said to beware of anthrax gators.
Solution: realistically map out your tee shots in a dispersion pattern that you can then adjust your target line on. That means Mr. 85 needs to know that he hits mostly boomerang slices and on the hole that has the houses down the right side needs to pick a new line down the left.
Conclusion
In short, we have learned that penalties from iron shots in the hazard or drives out of bounds are absolutely devastating to Mr. 85’s rounds. The value of the short game, while still a good opportunity for improvement, pales in comparison with the simple changes one can make in the target line. Follow these directions correctly and you will accomplish your goal of being slightly less terrible at golf.
Predictions: 2016 U.S. Open
June 14, 2016
The U.S. Open returns to historic Oakmont Country Club this week for the 9th time. This week will be about the course as much as it is the high scores the field will post. As opposed to last year’s contest at Chambers Bay, this week is a return to true U.S. Open style golf with billiard table quick greens and fairways you have to walk down single file. Will Oakmont play tough? Take a look at Justin Thomas’s recent video post on Instagram:
If that’s not enough punishment, here are the greens just in case you happen to hit them:
Let the punishment begin!
Top 10
1 Dustin Johnson -4
T2 Jim Furyk -1
T2 Scott Piercy -1
T2 Shane Lowry -1
T5 Sergio Garcia E
T5 Branden Grace E
7 Kevin Na +1
T8 Jason Dufner +2
T8 Zach Johnson +2
T8 Jason Day +2
T8 Daniel Summerhays +2
12 David Lingmerth +3
LG:
Winner: Jason Day Dustin Johnson; Jason Day finished T8 at +2
Winning Score: +5 -4
Runner Up: Dustin Johnson winner
“Unknown” in the Top 10: Colt Knost I don’t think he was even in the field, LG.
Last Year’s Winner (Speith) will…: Top 10 T37 at +9
How many prior US Open winners will be in the Top 10: 3 1, Jim Furyk
Masters Champion (Willett) will …: Miss Cut T37 at +9
British Open Champion (Z. Johnson) will …: Miss Cut Top 10, T8 at +2
PGA Champion (Day) will…: Win T8 at +2
Last week’s winner, Daniel Berger, will…: Make Cut T37 at +9
Rory will…: Top 10 Strong Twitter game, poor golf game. MC
Phil the thrill will…: Make Cut Phil the go-home-early thrill
Sergio Garcia will…: Make Cut Top 10, T5 at E
Dustin Johnson will…: Top 10 That’s one way to put “win”
Rickie Fowler will…: Miss Cut Correct
Adam Scott will…: Top 10 Close, T18 at +6
Will anyone break par for all 4 rounds?: No. Correct, DJ was closest with a +1 71 in R3. Kevin Na had 3 rounds in the 60s, but started with 75 on Thursday
What will be the highest score that misses the cut?: +30 89/77, which is a cool +26
Odds that JK and LG ever get to play Oakmont?: 2.5:1 yikes
What will be the major storyline of the tournament: The course dominating the field Probably DJ’s penalty….but, shockingly, Oakmont kind of laid down after the rain.
Bold Prediction?: Jason Day has a 4 putt. WHO FOUR PUTTS?? Not Jason Day
JK:
Winner: Dustin Johnson Correct. JK picks another one
Winning Score: +2 can’t win em all
Runner Up: Bubba Watson T51 at +12
“Unknown” in the Top 10: Daniel Berger T37 at +9
Last Year’s Winner (Speith) will…: T-2 not exactly
How many prior US Open winners will be in the Top 10: 2 Just Furyk.
Masters Champion (Willett) will …: Top 10 nope
British Open Champion (Z. Johnson) will …: MC Top 10
PGA Champion (Day) will…: Top 10 correct
Last week’s winner, Daniel Berger, will…: Top 10 incorrect
Rory will…: Make Cut, probably shoot 62 on the last day, and maybe crack the Top 10 after two 75s.MC
Phil the thrill will…: MC correct
Sergio Garcia will…: Make Cut Top 10
Dustin Johnson will…: Win correct
Rickie Fowler will…: Make Cut incorrect
Adam Scott will…: Can’t Putt / Miss Cut (it’s a haiku) at least i got rhythm
Will anyone break par for all 4 rounds?: not a chance in hell correct
What will be the highest score that misses the cut?: +18 one dude shot +19 for 18 holes!
Odds that JK and LG ever get to play Oakmont?: 1/1 – this WILL happen. more confidence
What will be the major storyline of the tournament: Johnny Miller talking about Johnny Miller wrong network…
Bold Prediction?: Spieth 4-putts….like he did in the British Open AND The Masters…. amazingly, correct
Predictions: 2016 The Masters
April 6, 2016
Hello, Friends.
It is a a tournament that requires no introduction, so we won’t waste your time with one.
However, I will waste your time with a personal narrative, because, let’s face it, you’re reading our blog for just this sort of thing.
Last year was my first ever trip to the Masters. To say that Augusta is awe-inspiring is an understatement. There is nothing like it in the world of golf. It literally felt like going to DisneyWorld when I stepped on the grounds. There is an enormous entrance that is only used for one week a year at Augusta. There are permanent structures devoted to concessions and merchandise that are used only one week a year. In fact, there is an entire PRACTICE FACILITY that is only used for one week a year!
And then there was the course. I have yet to find any pictures, videos, or even course fly-overs that do it justice. The undulation of the greens, particularly the ones on the front nine that are not often televised (holes 4-6), and the elevation change throughout the course generally must be experienced in person to understand why golf nerds love this place. These greens could not be built today by any rational golf course designer. For example, the back right pin location on the par three 6th hole must be one of the most intimidating shots in golf. My friends and I speculated about the names and origins of the herd of elephant that had been buried under this particular green. The drop offs around this location look as though they would kick the ball back to the front of the green by any shot that came up even an inch short, and the landing area is about the size of a throw rug. Naturally, long is dead. Imagine hitting to that location from 180 yards on Sunday with a 1 shot lead. Talk about pressure.
Finally, let’s not forget Amen Corner. There is, of course, it’s remarkable beauty, historical significance in the tournament’s outcome, and the brilliant design of the holes. While much ink has been spilled about these 3 holes, I’ll do my best to add something of value. What stood out to me was something I would not have believed had I not seen it with my own eyes. A friend and I were sitting in the stands watching groups play through during the practice round. To our left, we watch players attempt a dangerous approach to #11 – a lightening fast green with water short and left with the only bail out to the right. In front of us, we are treated to views of one of the most storied par 3s in golf history, #12. To our right, players tee off on the short par five 13th that bends left more than I could have imagined even after watching this tournament for 10 years. At some point during our reverie, my friend asks me if I see anything strange about the flags on #11 and #12. Indeed: They were no more than 100 yards apart, and yet, the wind was somehow causing them to point directly at one another.
Are you excited yet?
With a field of young guns, and no odds-on favorite, here are our humble predictions:
Place Player Score
1 Danny Willett -5
T2 Jordan Spieth -2
Lee Westwood
T4 Paul Casey -1
J. B. Holmes
Dustin Johnson
T7 Matthew Fitzpatrick E
Søren Kjeldsen
Hideki Matsuyama
T10 Daniel Berger +1
Jason Day
Rory McIlroy
Justin Rose
Brandt Snedeker
LG:
Winner: Rory McIlroy Danny Willett
Winning Score: -14 -5
Runner Up: Jason Day T10
“Unknown” in the Top 10: No unknowns – You’re going to have an insane finish this year. Danny Willett
Last Year’s Winner/US Open Champion (Jordan Speith) Will … (Win, Top 10, Make the Cut, or Miss the Cut): Top 10 correct
How many prior winners will be in the Top 10: 3 1
Dustin Johnson will… Top 10 correct
Bubba Watson will … Top 10 T37 at +9
Louis Oosthuizen … Top 10 T15 at +3, and one INSANE hole in one: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=98xPlrGfkco
Adam Scott will … Top 10 T42 at +11
Martin Kaymer will … Make Cut correct, T49 at +12
Ernie Els will … Make Cut MC, and still putting on #1: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X_kVhkUbtQE
Jason Dufner will … be found #dufnering by the big tree on Saturday (miss cut) correct..76-77
Sergio Garcia will … Make Cut correct, T-34 at +8
Bryson DeChambeau will … Miss Cut uhg…T21 at +5, and low amateur
British Open Champion (Zach Johnson) will … Top 10 wrong Johnson..MC, 72-80
PGA Champion (Jason Day) will … WIN T10 at +1
Will there be a hole in one? Yes! there were 3 on sunday alone
What will be the major storyline of the tournament? Insanely packed leaderboard with a shootout on Sunday – Rory, Jason, Rickie, Jordan, Louis, Bubba, Dustin, Phil, Scott, Henrik, and ZJ. sadly, Jordan Spieth choking on his wedge
What is your Bold prediction? There will be a double eagle! nope
JK:
Winner: Phil Mickelson MC
Winning Score: -5. After Jordan’s performance last year, I expect the tournament committee to put some teeth back in the course. correct on both fronts
Runner Up: Jordan Spieth correct, sadly
“Unknown” in the Top 10: Stephen Bowdwich MC, 79-82
Last Year’s Winner/US Open Champion (Jordan Speith) Will … (Win, Top10, Make the Cut, or Miss the Cut): top 10 yup
How many prior winners will be in the Top 10: 3 just Spieth
Dustin Johnson will… make the cut Top 10
Bubba Watson will … top 10 last man to make the cut, barely. not even close to the top 10
Louis Oosthuizen … top 10 close…T15 at +3
Adam Scott will … top 10 erm
Martin Kaymer will … miss the cut barely made it
Ernie Els will … take 45 putts to finish the second round. miss the cut he took 45 putts on the first hole
Jason Dufner will … who? Miss cut yup
Sergio Garcia will … make the cut yup
Bryson DeChambeau will … have the ugliest set of golf clubs on the planet. While he misses the cut. close
British Open Champion (Zach Johnson) will … top 10 yikes
PGA Champion (Jason Day) will … top 10 yup
Will there be a hole in one? Yes, but probably by an unknown and probably on the front nine kind of
What will be the major storyline of the tournament? Phil gets his fourth jacket, tying Arnold Palmer and Tiger Woods. This will be his last major victory not exactly
What is your Bold prediction? Rory McIlroy barely makes the cut, and finishes just outside the top 10 despite a last day chargenot exactly
2015 PGA Championship Predictions
August 12, 2015
Glory’s last shot…yada yada yada. Definitively the least exciting or compelling major. Honestly, JK and I nearly forgot to do predictions.
Also, Whistling Straits looks awesome.
Now, for your moment of Zen:
update as of 3/8/2016 – yes, this is how long it took me to finally update this post. you’d think with such an accurate prediction, I’d be able to get to it faster than that. oh well. answers provided in italics. here’s the top 10:
1 -20 Jason Day
2 -17 Jordan Spieth
3 -15 Branden Grace
4 -14 Justin Rose
T5 -13 Brooks Koepka
T5 -13 Anirban Lahiri
T7 -12 George Coetzee
T7 -12 Matt Kuchar
T7 -12 Dustin Johnson
T10 -11 Robert Streb
T10 -11 Tony Finau-JK
LG:
Winner: Dustin Johnson (T7, -12)
Winning Score: -12 ( -20, but you got DJ’s score right)
Runner Up: Rickie Fowler (T30, -4)
Low PGA Professional: No one cares. (correct)
“Unknown” in the Top 10: Thongchai Jaidee (cut)
Last Year’s Winner (Rory) Will … (Win, Top10, Make the Cut, or Miss the Cut): make cut (solo 17 at -9, correct)
The Master’s/US Open Winner (Speith) Will: Top 10 (correct. solo second)
The Open Champion (ZJ) Will: make cut (cut)
Will someone win it, or will everyone else lose it? DJ finally closes the deal. No stupid penalties this time.( yeah whatever)
What will be the biggest story of the tournament? See above. (biggest story–jason day crushes it)
Tiger Woods will: Make cut, possible top 10.(73-75. MC. RIP Tiger’s game)
Louis Oosthuizen will: Top 10 <T30, -4
Dustin Johnson will: WIN (top 10)
Rickie Fowler will: Top 10 (not exactly)
Jason Day will: Make cut (sure)
Martin Kaymer (last PGA winner at Whistling Straits) will: Make cut, possible top 10 (good guess, T12 at -10)
Who is most likely to blow it it on the 17th hole on Sunday? No one – DJ take the reigns and gets the job done. (no blowing it. just JDay blowing it away)
JK:
Winner: Jason Day (correct)
Winning Score: -11 (-20)
Runner Up: Jordan Spieth(correct)
Low PGA Professional: Johan Kok (77-77, MC. Brian Gaffney was the only club pro to make the cut, finishing at +5 and solo 71st)
“Unknown” in the Top 10: Robert Streb (correct)
Last Year’s Winner (Rory) Will … (Win, Top10, Make the Cut, or Miss the Cut): MC (incorrect)
The Master’s/US Open Winner (Speith) Will: Top 10 (correct)
The Open Champion (ZJ) Will: MC (correct)
Will someone win it, or will everyone else lose it? Win it. The PGA, while least compelling of all the majors, is usually won and not lost. (correct. JDay ran away with it)
What will be the biggest story of the tournament? Spieth in it again (correct for the first day or two, then…it was obvious he had no chance as Day kept striping 360-yard bombs down the middle.)
Tiger Woods will: MC(correct)
Louis Oosthuizen will: Top 10 (incorrect)
Dustin Johnson will: Top 10 (correct)
Rickie Fowler will: Top 10( incorrect)
Jason Day will: Win (correct)
Martin Kaymer (last PGA winner at Whistling Straits) will: MC (incorrect)
Who is most likely to blow it it on the 17th hole on Sunday? Bubba. (while this is true that he is the biggest tool on Tour, there was no losing this one.)
Predictions: 2015 British Open
July 13, 2015
Time for the third major of The Year Of The Links Major. This one, the purest form of links golf, the Open Championship at St. Andrews. In the last three contests at St. Andrews, the winner has waltzed to victory, with no margin of victory at St. Andrews being less than 5 shots since 1995. Many story lines pervade our senses–will Jordan Spieth take home the third major in a row? Will Tiger Woods find his game at a place that he has previously been a magician? Can Louis Oosthuizen relive his major championship form when it matters in his St. Andrews defense? Can Dustin Johnson bounce back from a terrible loss at the US Open?
Without further ado, here are our predictions:
Final Leaderboard:
1 Zach Johnson -15*
T2 Louis Oosthuizen -15*
T2 Marc Leishman -15*
T4 Jason Day -14
T4 Jordan Spieth -14
T6 Justin Rose -11
T6 Sergio Garcia -11
T6 Danny Willett -11
T6 Jordan Niebrugge (a) -11
T10 Adam Scott -10
*denotes playoff
LG:
WIN: Rickie Fowler (T30, -6)
PLACE: Victor Dubuisson (MC, 74-71)
SHOW: Tiger Woods (MC, 76-75)
Winning Score: -10 (-15)
“Unknown” in the Top 10: Eddie Pepperell (T49, -4. Actual answers: Willett, Niebrugge)
Last Year’s Winner (Rors) Will … (Win, Top 10, Make the Cut, or Miss the Cut): Be discussed on TV, but will not tee it. (yah)
The Master’s Winner (Spieth) Will …: Make Cut (T4, one shot away from the playoff)
The US Open Win….nevermind
The current PGA Champ….nevermind
How many prior winners will be in the Top 10: 2 (1-Oosthuizen)
Will someone win it, or will everyone else lose it? Rickie will continue his stellar play from last week and close wire to wire. (I’d say ZJ won it…big putt on 18, great score in the playoff)
What will be the biggest story of the tournament? Rory isn’t there, Tiger shows solid form, and Victor Dubuisson holes a miracle bunker shot on Friday from the Road Hole bunker. (ZJ, Spieth ALMOST doing it)
Will you watch on Sunday? Probably not live, but I’ll watch the replay. (I watched a ton. Great tourney)
Tiger Woods will: Top 10 – he could play this place blindfolded. (I wish)
Dustin Johnson will: Miss Cut. (leader at the cut line…fall away on the weekend. yikes DJ)
Bubba Watson will: probably not even show up. (wouldn’t that be nice? MC)
Philefty will: Make Cut. (T20, -7)
Horschel (Current Fedex Cup champion) will: Miss Cut. (T30, -6)
Jimmy Walker (second to Spieth in Fedex Cup points) will: Make Cut. (T30, -6)
Zach Johnson (LG’s favorite player) will: lol. (lol indeed)
Miguel Angel Jimenez (LG’s ACTUAL favorite player) will: Make Cut. (MC, 75-73)
Nick Faldo (1990 winner at St. Andrews) will: probably break a club during missing the cut. (83 on the first day. yeah)
John Daly (1995 winner at St. Andrews) will: sell T-shirts out of his van in the parking lot. (first outside the cut line)
Tiger Woods (2000 and 2005 winner at St. Andrews) will: Top 10. Come on TIGER! (yeah..right)
Louis Oosthuizen (2010 winner at St. Andrews) will: Top 10. (my second of two prior champions in the top 10) (good call. T-2 in playoff)
Rickie Fowler (2015 Scottish Open Champion) will: WIN! (Dear God)
What will be the margin of victory: 2 (0.0–playoff)
Will Rory McIlroy make an appearance? Probably in some Nike commercial about overcoming adversity (adversity here being an injury during a pickup soccer game…) (yup)
JK
WIN: Tommy Fleetwood (one shot outside the cut.)
PLACE: Paul Casey (T74 at E)
SHOW: Jason Day (T4, -14–one shot out)
Winning Score: -18 (-15)
“Unknown” in the Top 10: uhm….Tommy Fleetwood (right….not exactly)
Last Year’s Winner (Rors) Will … (Win, Top 10, Make the Cut, or Miss the Cut): count his money (indeed)
The Master’s Winner (Spieth) Will …: Top 10 (yup)
The US Open Win….nevermind
The current PGA Champ….nevermind
How many prior winners will be in the Top 10: 3 (1)
Will someone win it, or will everyone else lose it? Fleetwood wins running away (ZJ won it)
What will be the biggest story of the tournament? Tommy Fking Fleetwood
Will you watch on Sunday? Tune in to watch Tommy Fleetwood run laps around the field? no thanks
Tiger Woods will: Top10. Probably T-4. (nope)
Dustin Johnson will: Top10. Probably T-6 (close enough.)
Bubba Watson will: storm off the course, proclaiming that “Scottish golf is stupid–bubba golf is rad.” (yes!)
Philefty will: Top10. The British Open is always good to philly (close)
Horschel (Current Fedex Cup champion) will: gator champ at a patron, causing said patron to throw beer at him.
Jimmy Walker (second to Spieth in Fedex Cup points) will: Top10.
Zach Johnson (LG’s favorite player) will: Top10
Miguel Angel Jimenez (LG’s ACTUAL favorite player) will: Make Cut.
Nick Faldo (1990 winner at St. Andrews) will: cheat on his wife or girlfriend. Again.
John Daly (1995 winner at St. Andrews) will: shirtless JD at St. Andrews? Can it be true?
Tiger Woods (2000 and 2005 winner at St. Andrews) will: Top10. Great showing, can’t quite get it done.
Louis Oosthuizen (2010 winner at St. Andrews) will: Just outside the Top 10. He’s doing good right now.
Rickie Fowler (2015 Scottish Open Champion) will: wear orange on sunday?
What will be the margin of victory: 8 shots
Will Rory McIlroy make an appearance? Nike, Omega, the PGA of America….yeah, he’ll be there…in recording at least.
Predictions: 2015 U.S. Open
June 15, 2015
It’s that time again. It’s hell week. It’s our national championship, the ultimate test of golf, this year at a new site – Chambers Bay. More so than most years, the story prior to the championship has been the course, and the lack of a clear favorite. To help definitively resolve this issue, JK and I provide you with our picks:
Top 10
1 Jordan Spieth -5
T2 Louis Oosthuizen -4
T2 Dustin Johnson -4
T4 Adam Scott -3
T4 Cameron Smith -3
T4 Branden Grace -3
7 Charl Schwartzel -2
8 Brandt Snedeker -1
T9 Rory McIlroy E
T9 Shane Lowry E
T9 Jason Day E
T12 Kevin Kisner 1
T12 Matt Kuchar 1
JK:
Winner: Kevin Kisner (Jordan Spieth; Kisner T-12)
Winning Score: -1 (-5)
Runner Up: Justin Rose (Louis Oosthuizen and Dustin Johnson)
Low Amateur: Beau Hossler (Brian Campbell at T27, +5. Hossler made the cut, finishing T58 at +12)
“Unknown” in the Top 10: Billy Hurley III (MC with an 80 on the first day. Cameron Smith T4 at -3)
Last Year’s Winner (Martin Kaymer) Will … (Win, Top10, Make the Cut, or Miss the Cut): Top 10 (MC)
How many prior US Open winners will be in the Top 10: 2 (1 – Rory McIlroy)
Masters Champion (Speith) will …: Make the Cut (ha….)
British Open Champion/PGA Champion (Rory) will …: Top 10 (correct)
Sergio Garcia will…: Make the cut (correct, T18)
Dustin Johnson will…: Top 10 (correct, T2)
Rickie Fowler will…: Make the cut (not exactly)
Tiger Woods will…: Make the cut (uhh)
Jimmy Walker (current 2nd Fedex points) will…: Miss the cut (made it, T58)
Adam Scott will…: miss the cut (T4 with a scintillating 64 on Sunday)
What will be the major storyline of the tournament: the course (pretty much. course was awful. Although it could easily be Spieth’s second, or DJ’s blunder).
Bold Prediction?: i just told you Kevin Kisner was going to with the US Open. That’s not bold enough? (not a bad guess)
LG:
Winner: Dustin Johnson (so close)
Winning Score: -4 (but yet)
Runner Up: Rickie Fowler (so far away)
Low Amateur: Bryson DeChambeau (MC)
“Unknown” in the Top 10: Kevin Na (first off, T48 at +8. But second off…no, Kevin Na is not “unknown.” He’s a TOUR winner, LG)
Last Year’s Winner (Martin Kaymer) Will … (Win, Top10, Make the Cut, or Miss the Cut): Miss the Cut (correct)
How many prior US Open winners will be in the Top 10: 0 (1 – Rors)
Masters Champion (Speith) will …: Make the cut, but fade on the weekend (Fade into the fairway on 18, securing the trophy)
British Open Champion/PGA Champion (Rory) will …: Top 10 (correct)
Sergio Garcia will…: Top 10 (close)
Dustin Johnson will…: Win! (close)
Rickie Fowler will…: Second! (not close)
Tiger Woods will…: Play at least 2 rounds. (“least”)
Jimmy Walker (current 2nd Fedex points) will…: Make the cut (yup)
Adam Scott will…: Make the cut (Top10)
What will be the major storyline of the tournament: DJ holds on to win at a ridiculous course. He is paired with Rory in the final group, but Rory becomes a non-factor. Fowler, playing one group ahead, makes a run, but ultimately, DJ wins with a solid par on 18. (would have been cool. maybe next time)
Bold Prediction?: See storyline. Also, Fowler wears orange on Sunday. (hard to confirm what fowler was wearing, since he was absent)
Predictions: Masters 2015
April 6, 2015
True to form, the season is rounding out nicely. Many tournaments this year have gone to playoffs. We have had a host of big names playing their best golf at the right time. Wins from guys like Jordan Spieth, Dustin Johnson, and Jimmy Walker have headlined a great start to the year. But now, it’s time for the best week of golf.
Every year, that week is The Masters. It’s a our reminder that Spring is upon us and that our days of golf with friends and family are nearing. I think I speak for LG here in saying that our favorite post of anything we do is the one you’re about to read.
In commemoration, here is our 5th year of Predictions: I give you our Masters Predictions 2015:
updates 4/12/2015 :
Top 10 Leaderboard:
1 Jordan Spieth -18
T2 Phil Mickelson -14
T2 Justin Rose -14
4 Rory McIlroy -12
5 Hideki Matsuyama -11
T6 Ian Poulter -9
T6 Paul Casey -9
T6 Dustin Johnson -9
T9 Hunter Mahan -8
T9 Zach Johnson -8
T9 Charley Hoffman -8
T12 Rickie Fowler -6
T12 Ryan Moore -6
T12 Bill Haas -6
JK:
Winner: Jason Day T28 at -1. Correct is Jordan Spieth
Winning Score: -12 -18
Runner Up: Rory McIlroy Solo 4 at -12. Phil Mickelson and Justin Rose were T2 at -14
Low Amateur: Byron Meth Corey Conners shot 80-69 to MC best at 149. Meth shot 74-76 for a 150, 1 shot off
“Unknown” in the Top 10: Brian Harman MC with 76-72. There really wasn’t a true “unknown” in the top10. Maybe Matsuyama, but he’s big in Japan. Hoffman has been known for awhile. The nearest thing to a true “unknown” near the top10 was Kevin Streelman, but even he has some cache to his name.
Most difficult hole vs. par? 4 (i usually pick 11, but let’s mix it up) 11 at +.326, but 4 was +.296 for second most difficult
Easiest hole vs. par? 13 yeah, always is
Last Year’s Winner (Bubba Watson) Will … (Win, Top10, Make the Cut, or Miss the Cut)? Make the cut correct
How many prior Masters winners will be in the Top 10? 4 2, Phil Mickelson and Zach Johnson
US Open Champion (Martin Kaymer) will …? Make the cut MC
British Open Champion (Rory McIlroy) will …? Top10 Correct, solo 4 at -12
PGA Champion will … oh yeah, we don’t need to ask what Rory’s going to do again…
When will Sergio Garcia implode? the day he steps off the plane Friday, shooting 74, but otherwise played great and finished T17 at -5
Dustin Johnson will…? close to the Top10 T6 at -9
Rickie Fowler will…? make the cut Correct, but just barely–he was two shots from T9. Instead, he finished T12 at -6.
Jordan Spieth will…? make the cut yea…sort of….he killed it!
Jimmy Walker will…? make the cut Correct. T38 at +1
Tiger will? Top10…specifically T-4 close. T17 at -5.
Phil Mickelson will? Top10 Correct
Ben Crenshaw, Larry Mize, and Sandy Lyle. Who wins? Crenshaw, in his last year of playing, shoots the low round of the triad, and misses the cut by 4 shots. crenshaw shot the worst scores in the field–91-85. Yikes.
What will be the major storyline of the tournament? TIGA TIGA TIGA WOODS, Y’ALL That was big, but bigger was how Spieth demolished the field
What is your Bold prediction? Tiger Woods plays tremendous golf but misses easy putts all day. Rory makes a push for the title but can’t get over his duck hook from a few years ago and puts two in the water on 15. Jason Day does just enough to keep it in play and putt to hold on by 1, finally getting his major. would have been fun if this had happened, but it was still awesome watching Spieth annihilate the record books.
LG:
Winner: Sergio Garcia T17.
Winning Score: -9 Try double that
Runner Up: Rickie Fowler T12
Low Amateur: Gunn Yang This would be the correct answer to the question “who shot the third worst round in the entire field?
“Unknown” in the Top 10: Anirban Lahiri T49
Most difficult hole vs. par? 11 yeah
Easiest hole vs. par? 13 yeah
Last Year’s Winner (Bubba Watson) Will … (Win, Top10, Make the Cut, or Miss the Cut)? Top 10 nope. T38 at +1
How many prior Masters winners will be in the Top 10? 2 correct
US Open Champion (Martin Kaymer) will …? Miss Cut correct
British Open Champion (Rory McIlroy) will …? Top 10 correct
When will Sergio Garcia implode? In the press room after he wins 🙂uhm…
Dustin Johnson will…? Top 10 Correct. T6
Rickie Fowler will…? Runner Upnot exactly
Jordan Spieth will…? Make Cut lol. yeah.
Jimmy Walker will…? Make Cut correct
Tiger will? Play. he did a lot more than that
Phil Mickelson will? Make Cut so did he
Ben Crenshaw, Larry Mize, and Sandy Lyle. Who wins? Crenshaw – he already called it his last one. by crenshaw not returning, i think we all win
What will be the major storyline of the tournament? Sergio’s putting holds up to win him his first Major uhm
What is your Bold prediction? Sergio wins isn’t a bold enough prediction? Fine, Sergio’s redeeming win is overshadowed by Golf Channel following Tiger to the port-a-john when he has gas.OH NO! HE BREATHED WRONG! IS HE INJURED?!?!?!?!?!
LG will…? Be attending the Masters on Wednesday and Thursday 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 you suck
JK, I think we need to mix up the questions next year.
Also, see our history of prior years’ predictions:
2014: https://thepowerfade.com/2014/04/07/predictions-masters-2014/
2013: https://thepowerfade.com/2013/04/08/masters-predictions-2013/
2012: https://thepowerfade.com/2012/04/10/predictions-masters-2012/
2011: https://thepowerfade.com/2011/04/11/conversation-masters-predictions/
The PGA TOUR schedule, according to the PowerFade
March 15, 2015
Frys.com Open
LG: “Meet the newest first time winner on tour” I have a soft spot for this tournament because it was the first TOUR event I ever attended outside of the Presidents Cup. However, since it moved from CordeValle, not sure I care that much.
JK: “Rocco Mediate, 4 hole-out eagles in one tournament (one of them an ace), and he wins by one. That should tell you all you need to know.”
PGA Grand Slam of Golf
LG: “hardest tournament to get into, but even if you do, no one’s watching”
JK: “Seriously? We’re talking about this?”
Shriners Hospitals for Children Open (TPC Summerlin)
LG: “the PGA TOUR teaches you how to play hungover”
JK: “It’s like I’m a mirror; I’m bringing sexy back. But I need to get iN SYNC with what goes around. Catch my drift?”
The McGladrey Classic (Sea Island)
LG: “Unreal course, but I’m still not watching”
JK: “The McNoName FTW.”
CIMB Classic (Kuala Lumpur)
LG: “I thought this was a European tour event”
JK: “aka no television coverage during the hours we watch golf.”
Sanderson Farms Championship (Jackson, MS)
LG: LG’s Dad: “that course looks like crap on TV”
JK: “The White Supremacist Tour stop”
WGC – HSBC Champions (Shanghai)
LG: “Rory’s playing? I’ll watch”
JK: “Look, Rory is going to win if it’s in Dubai or Shanghai. Just give him the trophy and let’s move on.”
OHL Classic at Mayakoba
LG: “I think they played the big break there once?”
JK: “WTF is OHL? I thought this was an LPGA major?”
Hero World Challenge
LG: “18 man field? Hard to call this a TOUR event, but worth watching”
JK: “TIGER’S TOURNAMENT (that Zach Johnson wins most of the time).”
Franklin Templeton Shootout
LG: “pretty sure I’ve never watched this”
JK: “hey, guys…our tournament is crap. How can be create more buzz? OH, I KNOW! Let’s call it a ‘shootout’ instead of ‘championship.'”
Hyundai Tournament of Champions (Kapalua)
LG: “one of the most fun tournaments of the year to watch”
JK: “400 yard drives and ridiculous winds make this one of the most fun events of the year, if you can manage to catch one of the rare times it’s televised.”
Sony Open in Hawaii
LG: “golf porn for midwesterners/anyone that doesn’t live in CA”
JK: “it’s like a preview of a retirement community in florida, but with PGA Tour-level golf being played. BOOOOOOOOORRRRRRRRRINNNNNG”
Humana Challenge (PGA West)
LG: “over under on -22 to win?”
JK: “I can’t believe that guy shot that number on that course. un-freaking-believable. These guys really are good”
Waste Management Phoenix Open (TPC Scottsdale)
LG: “Frat party, meet golf”
JK: “Nothing says booze like Charlie Hoffman and a frat party. Allllllll-right!”
Farmers Insurance Open (Torrey Pines)
LG: “Tiger’s first win of the year”
JK: “Hey, let’s randomly play one round on this really easy course right next to the US Open venue. That’ll be fun!”
AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am
LG: “golf porn for everyone everywhere all the time ever”
JK: “still not exactly sure how this tournament works, but a guy wins it every year.”
Northern Trust Open (Riviera)
LG: “JK, when are we going to play Riviera?? Also, Fred Couples is on TV again, and hey, there’s a video of Ben Hogan”
JK: “‘LG, can’t you get us on at Riviera?’ is stated every. single. year.”
The Honda Classic (PGA National)
LG: “first tournament of the year where you know there’s going to be a lot of big names jammed at the top”
JK: “I keep waiting for one of the NBC announcers to slip up and say ‘WELCOME, TO AMERICA’S WANG!'”
Puerto Rico Open
LG: “Hey, I thought they were playing in Florida this week?”
JK: “You’re so B-string on this TOUR that you have to go to another country to play a US event. That should tell you something. (well, I guess it is a US Territory, but still…it aint a 50 state…)”
WGC – Cadillac Championship (Doral)
LG: “fewest water balls wins”
JK: “Look, Donald Trump is going to inject his faux hair into golf at some point. Let’s just make it here, before the season gets going, and then we’ll be good.”
Valspar Championship (Innisbrook)
LG: “let’s see if we can make up another stupid name for a set of three hard holes”
JK: “How many commercials can you sit through about paint? Readddyyy….go!”
Arnold Palmer Invitational (Bay Hill)
LG: “Tiger’s second win of the year…Also, an amazing venue and fun tournament to watch”
JK: “Wish LG didn’t talk about Tiger so damn much. Oh, wait, it’s Arnold Palmer handing a trophy to Tiger Woods…that’s pretty cool.”
Valero Texas Open
LG: “uhhh… not sure who to pick for fantasy golf for this one”
JK: “Alright amateurs….here’s your chance!”
Shell Houston Open
LG: “I love that this tournament basically admits that people only care about the Masters next week”
JK: “If you missed last week, here’s your chance again!”
The Masters
LG: “Best week of the year”
JK: “I have no words for how happy I am right now.”
RBC Heritage (Harbour Town)
LG: “I’m still talking about how awesome the Masters was this year” This tournament should be moved to attract a better field because this venue is amazing and somewhat unique for the TOUR.
JK: “Jim Furyk’s revenge. I’m with LG–this is a neat venue. I wish it was more isolated from the big tournaments.”
Zurich Classic of New Orleans
LG: “Meet the second/third first time winner of the year”
JK: “Bubba and a bunch of guys you’ve never heard of. Guess who’s gunna win?”
WGC – Match Play
LG: “One of the coolest tournaments of the year… Also, one of the best gambling opportunities of the year for golf fans”
JK: “Cool to review on ESPN. Horrible to watch in real time.”
The Players (TPC Sawgrass)
LG: “Pete Dye abuses the PGA TOUR – no one wins this tournament”
JK: “THE MOST DIFFICULT PAR 3 ON TOUR! NO, SERIOUSLY, WE’RE GOING TO TELL YOU THIS 1 MILLION TIMES UNTIL YOU BELIEVE IT. (btw, it’s not)”
Wells Fargo Championship (Quail Hollow)
LG: “I’m still reeling from the Players”
JK: “F – U Wells Fargo!”
Crown Plaza Invitational at Colonial
LG: “Cool venue, but im probably not going to watch the weekend unless Rory or Tiger are in contention”
JK: “Fun to watch how much Zach Johnson’s swing looks like Ben Hogan’s in still frame and how diametrically opposed Zach Johnson’s game is from Ben Hogan’s.”
AT&T Byron Nelson Championship
LG: “An “important” tournament, but same answer as Colonial”
JK: “Too bad this has become what it is. They never would’ve let it be like this while Byron was alive. Makes you wonder what will happen for Arnie’s and Jack’s when they pass on.”
The Memorial
LG: “Jack’s place – also pretty much the only reason to go to Ohio ever”
JK: “Incredible golf course. Amazing field. Not worth watching until Sunday.”
FedEx St. Jude Classic
LG: “I’m running out of clever ways to say that someone new wins this tournament”
JK: “Robert. Garrigus.”
U.S. Open
LG: “Golf is hard”
JK: “I hate the USGA.”
Travelers Championship
LG: “I’m not even sure I can watch golf after the U.S. Open”
JK: “this is a tournament?”
CVS Caremark Charity Classic
LG: “I didn’t know there was a tour event in Rhode Island!!”
JK: “can we watch something else besides golf right now?”
The Greenbrier Classic
LG: “Tom Watson comes to mind for some reason”
JK: “Who can get out of West Virginia the fastest. GO!”
John Deere Classic
LG: “Steve Stricker teaches the TOUR how to putt”
JK: “-27 finishes second here.”
Barbasol Championship (RTJ Grand National)
LG: “Like the name of its sponsor, this tournament is taking a back seat to the premium product”
JK: “BARBASOL! BARBASOL! BARBASOL!”
The Open Championship
LG: “Golf isn’t fair, but damn it’s fun”
JK: “Let’s let the weather decide who’s going to win one of the four most important tournaments of the year.”
RBC Canadian Open
LG: “Tiger hit a crazy good 6 iron here once”
JK: “It’s Peter LeFleur.”
Quicken Loans National
LG: “I think there’s one more major left this year?”
JK: “TIGER’S TOURNAMENT. Wait, wasn’t that the thing at Sherwood? Why does Tiger have two tournaments?”
Barracuda Championship
LG: “Seriously, I thought there was another major??”
JK: “PGA meets Web.com Tour”
WGC – Bridgestone
LG: “Tiger’s third win of the year – I’m actually surprised when he doesn’t win this one”
JK: “Tiger emerges from the ashes of injury and self-denial to lap the field, shooting -20 to the next best score of +9”
PGA Championship
LG: “It’s a major…I’m watching.”
JK: “The most boring major in golf…except all five LPGA majors.”
Wyndham Championship
LG: “Arjun Atwal won this tournament once”
JK: “go watch football”
The Barclays
LG: “THE PLAYOFFS!”
JK: “sweet tournament. Fun field.”
Deutsche Bank Championship
LG: “I still don’t understand the point system…”
JK: “boston. the most confusing tournament of the year.”
BMW Championship
LG: “Steve Sands spends an inordinate amount of time going through various scenarios about who can win the FedEx Cup”
JK: “Look, if you finish well here, you’re awesome.”
The TOUR Championship (East Lake)
LG: “Screw it, whoever wins wins it all” (Also, classic venue and great tournament)
JK: “oh, shit. golf is almost over. Hey, I put 3 balls in that lake on the sixth hole, remember LG?”
Conversation: US Open Venues
February 12, 2015
The US Open. Golf’s hardest test. Every year, the USGA sets out to create a venue that is so difficult that it tests the minds and patience of the greatest players in the game. According to the USGA, the goal “isn’t to embarrass the best players in the world.”
“It’s to identify them.”
Now, many golfers and golf fans have differing definitions of what’s the “best.” Everyone’s definition of what’s “best” is subjective. But “best,” at least in the context of America’s National Championship of Golf, can at least partially be quantified by how difficult the golf course is. So we here at the PF got thinking–what is the “best” (read, “hardest”) venue for the US Open?
Since the 1940s, the US Open’s winner shot +7 four times. But three of those events were in the 1950s, and the last one (the massacre of 1974) led the USGA to the conclusion that the course really was just too hard. (see http://sports.espn.go.com/golf/usopen06/news/story?id=2475245). Because of this, we use 1974 as the cut line for “modern” golf, as it represents a place where the focus of the USGA shifted just a bit, but enough to matter.
Importantly, the venues that hosted these high-numbered events (Merion, Oakland Hills, Olympic Club, and Winged Foot) have all seen US Opens since (Oakland Hills and Merion actually saw higher numbers in 1924 (+9, Oakland Hills) and 1934 (+13, Merion), but those were considered by the PF to be too old to include).
Since Hale Irwin’s win in the 1974 US Open at Winged Foot, there have been six US Opens where the winner had a score greater than even par. Those were
1975 – Medinah (Lou Graham, +3)
1978 – Cherry Hills (Andy North, +1)
2006 – Winged Foot (Goeff Ogilvy, +5)
2007 – Oakmont (Angel Cabrera, +5)
2012 – Olympic Club (Webb Simpson, +1)
2013 – Merion (Justin Rose, +1)
There have also been five instances where the winner’s score was E
1979 – Inverness (Hale Irwin)
1995 – Shinnecock Hills (Corey Pavin)
1998 – Olympic Club (Lee Janzen)
2005 – Pinehurst (Michael Campbell)
2010 – Pebble Beach (Graeme McDowell)
When reviewing the list of courses, several obvious ones jump out. Oakmont, being consistently known as a punishing layout, and Merion, recent site of the 2013 US Open that tested some of the best that showcased how a “short” (by TOUR standards) course could still be incredibly punishing. But it also bears mentioning that Olympic Club made both lists.
So, we looked back at some of these courses to see their history.
Medinah hosted twice since 1974 (just once before)
1990 – Hale Irwin, -8
1975 – Lou Graham, +3
Cherry Hills had only the one US Open in 1978 (twice before 1974)
1978 – Andy North, +1
Winged Foot hosted the 1974 massacre, and then once since, but notably has also hosted the PGA Championship (e.g., when DL III won his only major)
1984 – Fuzzy Zoeller, -4
Oakmont hosted the US Open 3 times since 1974 (and four times prior).
2007 – Angel Cabrera, +5
1994 – Ernie Els, -5
1983 – Larry Nelson, -4
Olympic Club has hosted 3 US Opens since 1974 (and twice before)
2012 – Webb Simpson, +1
1998 – Lee Janzen, E
1987 – Scott Simpson, -3
Merion hosted just two events since 1974 (although one of the three prior Merion US Opens included Ben Hogan’s famous 1-iron shot from the 18th fairway, which secured him a victory at +7)
2013 – Justin Rose, +1
1981 – David Graham, -7
of the “E” courses……
Inverness just had the one
Shinnecock has had 3
2004 – Retief Goosen, -4
1995 – Corey Paven, E
1986 – Raymond Floyd, -1
Olympic has already been covered
Pinehurst has hosted three times, but under grandly different course circumstances for each of the three, with MAJOR redesigns between all of them.
2014 – Martin Kaymer, -9
2005 – Michael Campbell, E
Pebble Beach
2010 – Graeme McDowell, E
2000 – Tiger Woods, -12
1992 – Tom Kite, -3
1982 – Tom Watson, -6
So, based on scoring alone…..there’s really no winner. All of the courses mentioned have had hard Opens and relatively easier Opens.
But winning score really can’t be used as a measure of how difficult the course was. For example, when Martin Kaymer won at Pinehurst, the only two other players under par were both at -1, and the next best player was at +1. In another example, Tiger Woods shot -12 at the US Open in 2000, but no other player was better than +3. And, it would be rather unfair to judge the 2000 US Open by Tiger’s (at the time) scoring record-breaking performance–literally the best golfer in the game playing the best golf of his career at the best time of his career.
Instead of looking at winning scores (which seem to be all over the board), let’s look at scoring average, as this more closely matches what would be an appropriate measure of difficulty.
Shockingly, the scoring average for US Opens is not an easily achievable statistic. For what we were able to find, the list is included below:
and, for the sake of preserving the data, it’s included in quote below
Year | Name | Course | Location | Average | Par | +/-
2014 | Martin Kaymer | Pinehurst Resort, Course No. 2 | Pinehurst, North Carolina | 73.23 | 70 | 3.23
2013 | Justin Rose | Merion Golf Club, East Course | Ardmore, Pennsylvania | 74.31 | 70 | 4.31
2012 | Webb Simpson | Olympic Club, Lake Course | San Francisco, California | 73.85 | 70 | 3.847
2011 | Rory McIlroy | Congressional Country Club, Blue Course | Bethesda, Maryland | 73.00 | 71 | 2.002
2010 | Graeme McDowell | Pebble Beach Golf Links | Pebble Beach, California | 74.98 | 71 | 3.979
2009 | Lucas Glover | Bethpage State Park, Black Course | Farmingdale, New York[N 1] | 72.93 | 70 | 2.9286
2008 | Tiger Woods (3) | Torrey Pines Golf Course, South Course | La Jolla, California[N 2] | 74.73 | 71 | 3.725
2007 | Ángel Cabrera | Oakmont Country Club | Oakmont, Pennsylvania | 75.72 | 70 | 5.72
2006 | Geoff Ogilvy | Winged Foot Golf Club, West Course | Mamaroneck, New York | 75.98 1st round | 76.933 2nd day | |
When we examine the data available (and, I’ll admit, there isn’t much), Oakmont is far and away the most difficult course of the last 8 years. 2006 would be a great one to compare to 2007, but we don’t have enough data. Merion would be next at +4.31, and (as that round is in pretty recent memory) the players indicated as such during the tournament, with many complaining that it was “unfair.” By the numbers, Pebble Beach was harder in 2010 than Olympic Club in 2012–and, even with Tiger’s incredible performance in 2000, my guess would be that the numbers would support the 2000 US Open as being harder than the 2010 US Open.
However, just on gut, I personally have always believed that Oakmont is the quintessential US Open venue. It’s insanely long even by TOUR standards, has punishingly difficult hills, has insanely undulating and fast greens, and insanely long rough. And–according to the data–the numbers bear it out.
Any thoughts from our readers? LG?
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